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Burnley vs Man City betting tips:
- Man City to win & under 3.5 Goals – 23/20 with Betway
- Julian Alvarez to score – 6/4 with Bet365
- Burnley to receive first booking – 4/6 with William Hill
Newly promoted Burnley face a baptism of fire when they host reigning Premier League champions Manchester City at Turf Moor on Friday.
The Clarets cruised to the Championship title last season after taking 101 points from 46 games, and they have since made some impressive signings.
However, they suffered a 6-0 defeat to City in an FA Cup quarter-final back in March, which highlighted the vast gulf in quality between these teams.
It is therefore unsurprising to see that the leading betting sites have installed Pep Guardiola’s men as the odds-on favourites to win this game.
City looked a little undercooked in the Community Shield on Sunday, so they are unlikely to beat Burnley by such a heavy margin this time around.
However, they should have enough firepower within their ranks to win this game and there is a great deal of value on offer at the best football betting sites.
We have discussed our top tips for the opening game of the 2023/24 Premier League season below.
Back Man City to get the job done
It has been a summer of upheaval for City, who clinched an historic treble in May after beating Manchester United in the FA Cup final and then Inter Milan in the Champions League final.
Captain Ilkay Gündogan, so often the hero in the run-in last term, left for Barcelona, depriving the team of their leader on the pitch. Riyad Mahrez then left for Saudi Arabia, diminishing the attacking options at Guardiola’s disposal.
New signings Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol are exciting, and more arrivals are expected before the transfer window shuts, but the Citizens may take a little while to hit their stride.
They often make a reasonably slow start to the season, before embarking on an outrageous winning streak at the turn of the year.
The players looked a little lethargic against Arsenal in the Community Shield last weekend, and they only really got going after playmaker Kevin De Bruyne came off the bench in the second half.
He has been nursing an injury and is not fully fit, so City are unlikely to be at their brilliant best on Friday.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that Burnley have had an intense pre-season, and they could be in superb physical condition.
It would be a major shock if they were to get a result from this game, but they should keep the scoreline far more respectable than it was in April, so combining an away win with under 3.5 goals makes the most sense.
Tip: Man City to win & under 3.5 Goals – 23/20 with Betway
Alvarez can play a key role for City
Erling Haaland won a clutch of individual awards after firing in a record 36 Premier League goals during City’s title-winning campaign last term, so it’s no surprise to see him as the clear favourite for the Golden Boot in the latest Premier League odds.
However, the goals dried up for him towards the end of the season as he scored just once in his last eight games.
He looked quiet against Arsenal in the Community Shield and he has now gone six matches without a goal for City. As such, odds of 8/11 on him finding the back of the net on Friday do not look particularly appealing.
Instead, you can grab longer odds of 6/4 on Julian Alvarez scoring at any time in this match. He scored twice in that 6-0 win against Burnley last season and he ultimately bagged 17 goals in all competitions for City.
The young Argentinian forward started against Arsenal in the Community Shield and he is likely to hold onto his place in the team on Friday.
He is clinical in front of goal and could be the man to break Burnley’s resistance at Turf Moor.
Tip: Julian Alvarez to score – 6/4 with Bet365
Burnley will need to get physical
Long gone are the days when Burnley would kick lumps out of their opponents under the rugged leadership of Sean Dyche.
They often displayed a great deal of flair and panache when easing to the Championship title last season and they could play more expansive football in the top flight this time around.
However, you are liable to suffer a very heavy defeat if you play like that against a team with City’s technical quality.
Most opponents sit back, defend deep and try to hit the Citizens on the counterattack and Burnley may follow suit. Kompany will have learned from that 6-0 pasting in March and they will probably keep things tighter on Friday.
We can expect City to dominate possession so Burnley will need to put in some crunching tackles and commit some tactical fouls to keep them at bay.
For those reasons, odds of 4/6 on Burnley receiving the first booking of the game look attractive.
Tip: Burnley to receive first booking – 4/6 with William Hill
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
