Burnley vs Arsenal predictions: Premier League betting tips, odds and free bets

Burnley vs Arsenal predictions

• Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – 23/20 with BetVictor
• Bukayo Saka over 0.5 assists – 5/2 with BoyleSports
• Under 4.5 total cards – 4/6 with bet365

Arsenal’s last two results should have gone some way to silencing those questioning their title credentials as they head to Burnley seeking a fifth straight league win (3pm).

The Gunners recorded their biggest-ever away win in the Premier League when thrashing West Ham 6-0 last Sunday, a result that followed hot on the heels of a 3-1 victory over leaders Liverpool that reduced the Reds' advantage to two points.

Depending on how Liverpool fare at Brentford in the Saturday lunchtime kick-off, Arsenal could be going for top spot at Turf Moor. 

The Premier League odds suggest they should have no issues seeing off Burnley with their best-price of 3/10 on betting sites equating to over a 76 per cent chance of victory.

But the Clarets need the points just as much as the visitors as they fight to keep their heads above water towards the bottom of the table. 

Last weekend’s 3-1 defeat to Liverpool leaves Burnley seven points from safety and without a win in any competition since before Christmas.

Football betting sites offer 9/1 on Vincent Kompany’s men pulling off the upset, but even those prices might be underestimating the size of the task facing Burnley.

Arsenal to exert control over Clarets

Arsenal’s winter break clearly came at just the right time for Mikel Arteta’s men as since returning from their Dubai training camp, they’ve won four straight league games to keep pace with Liverpool and Manchester City.

The Gunners have been dominant in each of those victories, scoring a combined 16 goals and enjoying over 70 per cent possession in the two away wins at Nottingham Forest and West Ham.

They still have the biggest odds of the three main title protagonists at 11/2 but there can be fewer doubts that Arteta and co have stepped up their game.

Arsenal are unlikely to have an easier away day than the one they enjoyed at the London Stadium last weekend when their hosts were so obliging, allowing them to score more than two goals in an away game for only the third time this season.

Rather than blow their opponents away, Arsenal have tended to take a more pragmatic approach on the road and they head to Turf Moor boasting the best away defensive record in the division. 

With the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against Porto to come next week, a measured, professional performance, rather than going all out for another statement win, looks more likely.

Burnley’s ability to hurt Arsenal is diminished by the absence of Lyle Foster, although David Fofana has certainly brought something to the attack since joining in January. 

They created chances against Liverpool, but it was a familiar story as a more ruthless opponent punished their profligacy and defensive errors to stretch Burnley’s winless run to six games in the league.

The Clarets now return home, where they’ve won once all season, losing nine out of 12 matches and shipping over two goals per game on average.

That’s a concern given how sharp Arsenal’s attack looked at West Ham and the Gunners exposed Burnley’s frailty from set pieces when winning the reverse fixture 3-1.

Arsenal may get close to matching that scoreline, but after last week’s flurry of goals, some regression seems likely and a slightly more routine victory featuring fewer than four goals is the bet.

Burnley vs Arsenal Tip 1: Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – 23/20 with BetVictor

Saka the goal supplier 

Bukayo Saka chalked up his 12th and 13th goals of the season for Arsenal in their rout of West Ham and has now scored in each of the Gunners’ last three matches.

Unsurprisingly, he’s the top price in the goal scorer markets on betting apps for Saturday’s game as he goes in search of his first goal against Burnley at the seventh time of asking.

But rather than go for Saka to score, this could be a game where he shows his creative talents instead.

For starters, Saka takes the majority of Arsenal’s corner from the right, and as we know, Burnley are susceptible to conceding a set-piece goal or two. Arsenal had a higher expected goals figure (1.05) from set pieces than open play (0.9) the last time the two sides met.

Secondly, only three players have created more big chances than Saka in the Premier League this season, while he’s registered at least seven shot-creating actions in three of his last four games, according to Fbref.

Finally, is the sheer number of assists Saka has to his name this season. He only has seven in the league but 12 overall in all competitions, one fewer than his goal tally.

Burnley vs Arsenal Tip 2: Bukayo Saka over 0.5 assists – 5/2 with BoyleSports

Card count likely to be low

There are 39 points between these sides in the traditional table, but the gap is far smaller when examining them on a fair play basis.

No side has collected fewer cards than Arsenal this season (39), while Burnley are ranked 15th in that particular metric with 49 cards to their name.

The Clarets also average slightly more fouls per game than the Gunners, 11 to 9.6, which makes neither a serial offender. 

There was a red card in the reverse fixture with Arsenal’s Fabio Vieira sent off, but that was one of only two cards on the day and referee Jarred Gillett shouldn’t have to go to his pocket all that often.

He does have a relatively high cards per game average of 4.82 yellows. That average should come down when taking charge of these well-behaved sides with Burnley receiving over two cards once in their last nine games. 

For Arsenal, just over a quarter of their cards have come in two meetings against Liverpool and outside of those battles, they’ve only received three or more cards three times in 22 games.

Burnley vs Arsenal Tip 3: Under 4.5 total cards – 4/6 with bet365

Free bets for Burnley vs Arsenal

If you are looking to follow our Burnley vs Arsenal predictions, be sure to check out the free bet offers currently available with bookmakers and be on the look out for any special promotions.

BetGoodwin may be more synonymous as a racing bookmaker, but they have boosted a treble of the Gunners, Liverpool and Manchester City to all win on Saturday to 2/1.

You can also get 2/1 on over 18.5 goals and over 62.5 corners in the 3pm and 5.30pm matches in the top flight on Saturday.

If don't have an account with BetGoodwin, they are giving new customers up to 50 per cent of their money back as a free bet, up to £25, on any first day loses on their sportsbook. To join, click this link, open an account and make an initial deposit.

Then place a minimum of three bets of £10 or more. Qualifying bets must have odds of evens of greater and if any of your wagers lose on the first day of having a BetGoodwin account, you'll receive 50 per cent of your losses back as a free bet, up to the value of £25.

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