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Brighton vs Ajax betting tips:
- Brighton to win & both teams to score – 7/5 with BoyleSports
- Pascal Gross anytime goalscorer – 27/10 with BetUK
- Over four Ajax shots on target – 15/8 with William Hill
As a mark of how far Brighton have come in a short space of time, the Seagulls are odds-on to beat four-time European champions Ajax when the sides meet for the very first time in the Europa League on Thursday.
This week 10 years ago, Albion were preparing for a trip to Blackpool. Now, they are heavy favourites with UK football betting sites heading into their first-ever meeting with one of the giants of Dutch football.
But those odds aren’t just a reflection of Brighton’s rapid rise to prominence, but also the dramatic downfall of Ajax, who are a club in crisis at this moment.
The Amsterdammers sacked their coach Maurice Steijn on Monday after a 4-3 loss to Utrecht last weekend left them winless in eight and in the Eredivisie relegation zone.
Ajax’s Europa League campaign is going slightly better at least after a pair of draws against Marseille and AEK Athens, leaving them one point better off than basement dwellers Brighton.
It’s been a tough learning curve for Roberto de Zerbi's team in the club’s first European jaunt and the visit of Ajax to a sold-out Amex Stadium stacks up as a must-win game for the south coast side.
Brighton to do it the hard way
The Seagulls are currently bottom of Group B having taken one point from their first two games – a home defeat to AEK and an entertaining 3-3 draw away to Marseille.
Despite getting off to a bad start, most betting sites make Brighton odds-on to qualify for the next round of the Europa League.
If they are to make it through to the knockout phase, the south coast side will need to start picking up points soon and have a good opportunity to do just that on Thursday given the turmoil at Ajax.
The Dutch outfit sacked Steijn after a disastrous 11-game spell in charge with Hedwiges Maduro appointed caretaker boss while the club search for a replacement.
Ajax’s worst-ever start to a season sees them in the Eredivisie relegation zone for the first time in the club’s history - but it could be even worse, with Opta’s expected points model suggesting they should be bottom of the standings entirely.
There are few redeeming features about how Ajax have been playing of late, apart from their attacking intent.
That’s led to them finding the back of the net in five of the last six games and in the likes of Steven Bergwijn, Bruno Sosa and Brian Brobbey, they have capable attackers.
That spells trouble for a Brighton side without a clean sheet this season, although the home side’s superior levels of firepower could be enough to overwhelm Ajax in a high-scoring encounter.
De Zerbi’s men may be without a win in five games and have mounting injury issues after Solly March and Danny Welbeck both picked up problems in Saturday’s loss to Manchester City, but they still possess the quality to claim a maiden win in Europe.
Interim Ajax boss Maduro doesn’t have enough time to address Ajax’s defensive flaws and in a game Brighton really need to win, the home victory and both teams to score – a bet that’s landed in each of the Seagulls’ last four wins at the Amex – is a strong option.
Tip: Brighton to win & both teams to score – 7/5 with BoyleSports
Gross good value for a goal
With Brighton’s 12 games this season having featured 50 goals, it’s worth having a good look at the goalscorer markets and taking stock of the options.
Prodigious Irish teenager Evan Ferguson is the anytime goalscorer market leader, but his involvement isn’t guaranteed, even with Welbeck picking up an injury at the weekend.
A midfielder or defender has found the back of the net against Ajax in six straight games so it’s worth looking at alternatives with Pascal Gross an interesting contender at 27/10 with BetUK.
The German has scored three goals already this season, including bagging in the 2-2 draw at Marseille in Brighton’s last Europa League game.
Only Karou Mitoma (1.9) averages more shots per game than Gross (1.8) amongst players currently available to De Zerbi, while he could be on penalty duty if Joao Pedro doesn’t play.
Ajax to have a go
Under dismissed coach Steijn, Ajax were an aggressive, attack-minded outfit and that philosophy, while short-lived, may take some time to work its way out of the players' system.
The 36-time Dutch champions will likely come and have a go at Brighton, who conceded three goals from five shots on target in their previous Europa League home game against AEK Athens.
Ajax are sixth in the Eredivisie on expected goals per minute and have averaged over five shots per game domestically.
A reaction is expected from Ajax after Steijn’s departure and we’re backing them to have over four shots against Brighton with William Hill.
Tip: Over four Ajax shots on target – 15/8 with William Hill
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
