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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich betting tips:
- Bayern Munich to win – 5/6 with Betway
- Over 3.5 goals – 10/11 with Unibet
- Leroy Sane to score any time – 21/10 with BetUK
Gary Lineker once uttered a famous line about how Germany dominates international football. “Football is a simple game - 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win,” he said.
Lineker could’ve made a similar point about the head-to-head between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, particularly in recent years.
Since the former last won the league in 2011/12, the latter has won 15 of the 22 Bundesliga meetings and only lost three. At the end, Bayern always win.
Football betting sites believe Bayern will win this latest clash too, making the visitors strong favourites for Saturday's encounter (5:30pm, Sky Sports Football).
Not that they need additional motivation in this fixture, but Bayern will have it after what happened to them in midweek.
Bayern to win as they usually do?
Thomas Tuchel’s side started the 2023/24 season in typically ominous form. Bayern have so far amassed seven victories and two draws from nine league games and a perfect three wins out of three in the Champions League.
They won their last league match against Darmstadt with the small matter of eight second half goals too. But one thing Bayern won’t be winning this season is the DFB-Pokal.
They were knocked out in the second round for the third time in four seasons on Wednesday. What will hurt far more was that they were eliminated by 1. FC Saarbrucken, a third tier team.
Borussia Dortmund progressed with a 1-0 home victory over Hoffenheim, leaving a 2-0 loss at Paris Saint-Germain – hardly an unexpected outcome – as their only defeat in all competitions this term.
Cup shock aside, the teams in Der Klassiker could hardly be approaching it in better form. But Dortmund don’t have a good record against Bayern at Signal Iduna Park in recent times.
The corresponding fixture ended in a 2-2 draw last season, with the home side having to come from two goals down to equalise in the 95th minute through Anthony Modeste.
That was achieved with a team that should have won the league but fell at the final hurdle; the class of 2023/24 does not look capable of going one better.
The three preceding Bundesliga meetings in front of the Yellow Wall all saw Bayern win by a single goal too.
If not as one-sided as the head-to-head record, the statistics from 2023/24 also favour Tuchel’s boys.
Based on opposition points-per-game averages, Dortmund have had the easiest opening nine matches of any team in the division.
Despite this, they have dropped points to Heidenheim and Bochum, who start the weekend 13th and 16th respectively.
The underlying expected goal numbers suggest the sides should be three points apart, only one more than they are in the league table.
Yet they also suggest that Bayern deserve to be shorter priced favourites to win, so with that and the history of the fixture, we're backing them to emerge with the three points.
Goals, Goals, Goals
Der Klassiker has a proud history of goals, with both sides scoring in the previous six league meetings and last eight in all competitions. Such near certainty ensures that the odds are too skinny to take though.
The prices are basically the same for there to be over 2.5 goals, another frequent outcome in this fixture.
But if we’re confident there will be at least four goals in total, and the recent history of the fixture implies that could be the case, a bet on that outcome becomes worthy of a closer look.
Three of the previous eight clashes between Dortmund and Bayern Munich saw exactly four goals, three featured five and two – including the most recent, a 4-2 home win at the Allianz Arena in April – saw six.
Only two of Bayern’s nine league matches this season haven’t paid out on over 3.5 goals and the teams they beat offered no more than 0.3 expected goals both times.
With Dortmund offering far more of a threat on their own patch, we could see over 3.5 goals on Saturday.
Sane to find the net
Harry Kane will get his first taste of Der Klassiker on Saturday.
While this is not a derby in geographical terms, he had an excellent record against Arsenal, scoring 14 goals in 19 matches for Tottenham in the north London derby.
And although he could score here too, Leroy Sane has a bigger price with UK bookmakers to find the net and the former Manchester City man looks a threat in the final third.
He has scored eight goals in nine league games this term, only drawing a blank three times, and he had three or more shots in seven of those matches.
While Kane has the added edge of being the penalty taker, if we exclude spot kicks, Sane has mustered just 0.6 expected goals fewer than the England captain in the 2023/24 Bundesliga season.
His average chance quality – xG per shot – is a shade higher too. Sane could be the one to watch for an any time goal.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
