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Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham tips
- Bayer Leverkusen to win & over 2.5 goals – 21/20 with BoyleSports
- Florian Wirtz to score any time – 12/5 with bet365
- Alejandro Grimaldo over 84.5 passes – 5/6 with BetVictor
West Ham have overcome numerous European obstacles under David Moyes in the last two-and-a-half years but he faces their biggest challenge to date in a Europa League quarter-final tie against German champions-elect Bayer Leverkusen.
Leverkusen need just one more win to clinch a first-ever Bundesliga title and are chasing a treble having reached the DFB Pokal final at the start of April.
Not only that, Die Werkself are yet to taste defeat in 41 games in all competitions this season, helping turn boss Xabi Alonso into the hottest coaching property in Europe.
Alonso, who has turned down numerous job offers to stay at Leverkusen for next season, has already exceeded expectations and football betting sites see them continuing their upward trajectory by dumping West Ham out of the Europa League.
Leverkusen are big favourites across al mainstream betting apps for Thursday’s home leg of the quarter-final tie at the BayArena (8pm, TNT Sports 2), with the Hammers as big as 7/1 in places.
Moyes’ men did see off German opposition in the round of 16 when beating Freiburg 5-1 on aggregate but this is a far stiffer challenge, especially without two of their key players.
Europa League tip: Red-hot Leverkusen too much for Hammers
West Ham head to Germany off the back of a win, albeit in controversial circumstances, beating Wolves 2-1 at Molineux on Saturday.
However, the victory came at a cost with top scorer Jarrod Bowen limping off. He’s unlikely to feature in the first leg and is set to join the suspended Edson Alvarez in taking a watching brief.
Both men have been key to West Ham’s efforts this season, which sees them lying in seventh in the Premier League and having enjoyed a relatively trouble free run to the Europa League quarter-finals.
The Hammers comfortably beat Freiburg to first place in Group A before seeing off the same opponents in the last round.
They did lose the first leg of that last 16 tie though and while their record on the road in Europe is good, more recently they’ve lost seven of their last 11 away matches in all competitions.
There have been some heavy defeats in that run, shipping five at Liverpool and Fulham, and four to Newcastle, and that’s bad news for a meeting with free-scoring Leverkusen.
Leverkusen have scored three or more in each of their home Europa League games this season, netting 19 in the group stage in total, and had scored two or more in 12 straight games before a 1-0 win over Union Berlin last weekend.
Even in that narrow success, they generated 2.8 expected goals and pose a threat all over the pitch with five players having already reached double figures for goals this season.
They’ve been able to blow opponents away, scoring 65 goals at home in all competitions, while averaging 4.25 goals per Europa League home game.
Last 16 opponents Qarabag showed Leverkusen can get got at though, the Azerbaijani outfit securing a 2-2 draw at home and going 2-0 ahead in Germany before the hosts mounted a stunning late comeback.
West Ham will pose a threat on the counter attack and the potential for goals in this first leg seems high.
Given how short Leverkusen are just to win on gambling sites, getting 21/20 with Boylesports on a home win and over 2.5 goals could prove decent value.
Leverkusen have won six on the spin and with so much impetus behind them it will take an extra special effort from West Ham to return home level or with the advantage in the tie.
Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win & over 2.5 goals – 21/20 with BoyleSports
Wirtz may hurt West Ham
Alonso has helped elevate numerous Leverkusen players since arriving at the club, but none more so than Florian Wirtz, who has realised his potential under the Spaniard.
The 20-year-old has registered a team-high 32 goal contributions across all competitions this season, comprising of 14 goals and 18 assists.
Betting sites make him the favourite to register an assist in this game at 5/2, but his recent form shows he’s been more of a goal scorer than provider.
He’s netted six goals in his last seven appearances for Leverkusen, and he also scored for Germany against France during the March international break.
He’s had multiple shots on goal in nine of his last 10 games for Leverkusen and offers decent value at 12/5 to net against the leaky Hammers.
Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham Tip 2: Florian Wirtz to score any time – 12/5 with bet365
Grimaldo to get on the ball
This quarter-final pits one team happy to play without the ball against another that’s got the highest possession percentage and pass completion stats in their domestic league.
If you hadn’t already guessed, West Ham are the side happy not to have the ball, posting the fourth lowest average possession percentage in the Premier League.
The Hammers are likely to sit back and soak up the pressure, especially away from home, while Leverkusen probe and try to unpick the Europa Conference League holders.
That brings the player passing lines into focus with Alejandro Grimaldo a particularly interesting candidate. He’s 5/6 to attempt over 84.5 passes, a mark he’s passed in five of his last seven Bundesliga and Europa League appearances.
His pass attempt numbers have steadily gone up over the course of the season and the wing back is liable to see plenty of the ball on Thursday as Leverkusen try to stretch the game.
Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham Tip 3: Alejandro Grimaldo over 84.5 passes – 5/6 with BetVictor
Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham predictions
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Last Updated: 11th April 2024, 04:45 PM
