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Barcelona vs PSG predictions
- Over 3.5 goals – 5/4 with BetUK
- Ilkay Gundogan to score or assist – 7/4 with bet365
- Over 10.5 corners – 11/10 with Sporting Index
It’s advantage Barcelona after the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie against Paris Saint-Germain, but if the history of this fixture is anything to go by, a second leg comeback on Tuesday can’t be ruled out (8pm, TNT Sports 1).
Football betting sites make Barca odds-on to qualify for the semi-finals after an impressive 3-2 win in Paris last week with a brace from the inspired Raphinha and a late Andreas Christensen goal settling matters in the Spaniards’ favour.
PSG have been pushed out to 3/1 in the Champions League odds to advance to the last four after an underwhelming first leg in which they looked defensively vulnerable, failing to protect a 2-1 lead given to them in the second half by goals from Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha.
Kylian Mbappe was kept remarkably quiet by Barca, receiving a 3/10 rating from French newspaper L’Equipe for his performance, and PSG coach Luis Enrique will hope for much better from his star man as he takes his current charges back to his old stomping ground.
Barca are yet to lose in Europe at their adopted home, the Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium, and enter this game unbeaten in 13 in all competitions, looking much more like the side that won LaLiga last season.
But with this fixture throwing up so many surprises in the past, it may be best to sidestep the result market on betting apps and focus our punting attention elsewhere.
Barcelona vs PSG tip: High-scoring contest to decide semi-final spot
Delivering Barcelona’s sixth Champions League title would be a fitting way for the outbound Xavi to sign off before his summer departure and he appears to be putting all his eggs in the European basket.
The Blaugrana great made sweeping changes for the win over Cadiz at the weekend with Frenkie de Jong and Ilkay Gundogan given the night off, while Robert Lewandowski and Joao Cancelo were suspended so also got a break. Others, like first leg star Raphinha and the fit-again Pedri had bit parts roles from the bench.
Xavi’s ranks have swelled as the treatment room has cleared, but he won’t have suspended duo Christensen or the hero of La Remontada Sergi Roberto for this game.
Those are two key absences from a defensive point of view and take some experience out of a side that could feature two teenagers and 21-year-old in the starting line-up.
Barca have kept seven clean sheets in the last 13 games, but there have been occasions this season when they’ve been exposed at home, shipping five against Villarreal, four to Girona and three to Granada.
The last time PSG came to Barcelona, the French side scored four, three of them coming from Mbappe, and they’ll need to throw caution to the wind to have a chance of going through.
Since the Parisians became Champions League regulars they’ve faced Barcelona 11 times. Of those meetings, eight have featured at least four goals, and there’s enough attacking quality on show to suggest they’ll surpass that mark once more.
Mbappe has scored 21 goals in his last 21 outings, Dembele has been in good form lately and will no doubt be keen to score on his return to Barcelona, and Achraf Hakimi is back from suspension to add more dynamism to PSG’s right side.
As for Barca, Lewandowski might not be as prolific as he once was but still has 20 goals to his name this season, while PSG couldn’t handle Raphinha in the first leg. There’s also plenty of creativity in midfield and some firepower in reserve with Joao Felix and Ferran Torres likely substitutes.
PSG aren’t convincing defensively, but that’s nothing new. They enter this second leg without a clean sheet in the last 17 Champions League away games.
Neither side does quite enough to put them up to win with too much conviction, but what does appear likely is a back-and-forth encounter featuring plenty of goal-mouth action.
Barca won’t sit on their lead and PSG need to be positive, laying the groundwork for another Champions League classic between these two.
Barcelona vs PSG Tip 1: Over 3.5 goals – 5/4 with BetUK
Gundogan’s got PSG number
It’s been a solid if unspectacular first season at Barcelona for Gundogan so far, but with the trophies nearly ready to be handed out, the Germany international has kicked into another gear.
He registered his 11th assist of the campaign in the first leg against Paris Saint-Germain, taking him one clear of Raphinha for assists on the Barca stats sheets.
He’s created more chances (24) than anyone else in the Champions League this season and was on set-piece duty in the first leg, when PSG goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma looked far from comfortable dealing with crosses into his box.
Barca came close to scoring a couple of times from corners before Christensen headed home late on and there’s scope for Gundogan to boost his assist tally.
The ex-Man City man has also netted five times for the Catalonia outfit and that makes him worth considering at 7/4 with bet365 to score or assist any time.
Barcelona vs PSG tip 2: Ilkay Gundogan to score or assist – 7/4 with bet365
Count on plenty of corners
No side has won more corners than PSG (64) in the Champions League this season and Barcelona (52) aren’t all that far behind.
It wasn’t a huge surprise then that we had 12 corners in the first meeting between these two. Gambling sites expect there to be fewer corners this time around, but there are some good reasons to believe we'll see a similar number.
With so many talented wide players on show and Barcelona having had some joy from corners last week, the potential for the corner count to get into double figures once more feels high.
Cadiz won eight corners against Barcelona at the weekend, while PSG accumulated a massive 17 in their last league game, so there is a recent trend for games featuring these two to produce a high number of corners.
In a game featuring two attack-minded teams, consider taking over 10.5 corners at 11/10 with Sporting Index.
Barcelona vs PSG Tip 3: Over 10.5 corners – 11/10 with Sporting Index
Barcelona vs PSG bets
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Last Updated: 16th April 2024, 11:02 PM
