Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Aston Villa vs Chelsea predictions
- Aston Villa to win & both teams to score – 3/1 with bet365
- Over 9.5 shots on target in the match – 10/11 with Unibet
- Douglas Luiz to score or assist – 7/4 with bet365
Mauricio Pochettino is a man under pressure after back-to-back thrashings for Chelsea and his circumstances are unlikely to improve when the Argentine takes his side to Aston Villa in the FA Cup on Wednesday (8pm, ITV1).
Pochettino’s odds to be the next Premier League manager to leave his job have been cut drastically following a 4-2 home defeat to Wolves last weekend, a result which followed hot on the heels of losing 4-1 at Liverpool.
The ex-Tottenham boss is struggling in his remit to get more out of the Blues’ expensively assembled squad but seems unlikely to depart before the EFL Cup final later this month, while betting sites still rank Chelsea amongst the serious contenders to win the FA Cup.
They are a slightly shorter price to lift the trophy than Aston Villa, yet are the outsiders to progress from their fourth round replay at Villa Park.
Football betting sites give the hosts a better than 60 per cent chance of going through to the fifth round with either Plymouth or Leeds at home, despite Villa losing their last five home FA Cup matches.
But there are plenty of reasons why Unai Emery’s side are favoured in the FA Cup odds against an out-of-form Chelsea side.
Villa have an excellent recent home record over the last year and bounced back from a rare defeat on their own patch to Newcastle with a resounding 5-0 victory at Sheffield United last weekend.
And while recent results at home to Chelsea have been poor, they are unbeaten in three games against the Blues, making Villa the right side to be on when weighing up this match on betting apps.
Villa firepower to make the difference
Pochettino has called on the Chelsea squad and fanbase to pull together ahead of the trip to Villa Park in the wake of recent setbacks.
The goalless draw against the Villans in the original fourth round tie marked the start of the Blues’ ongoing three-game winless run and the eight-time FA Cup winners may struggle to end that sequence on the road.
Chelsea have lost six of their last seven matches on their travels and have shipped at least two goals in all but one of those games.
Defensively, they have been all over the place recently, conceding the most shots on goal they’d ever faced in a Premier League match at Liverpool.
Pochettino is weighing up switching to a back three to try and stabilise his defence but he has issues elsewhere too with his two £100million-plus midfielders, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez, struggling to justify their hefty price tags.
They look ill-equipped for a meeting with Villa’s industrious and influential engine room, which is powered by John McGinn and Douglas Luiz.
Villa’s midfield shone as it ripped Sheffield United to shreds at the weekend and has the potential to overpower the visitors in the middle of the park.
Chelsea were the last side to stop Villa scoring at home back in October 2022 but their current defence could find itself stretched to breaking point if the home side's midfield can get on top and utilise the pace and power of Ollie Watkins and co.
But Villa may have issues keeping the back door closed against a Chelsea attack that can now call upon big summer signing Christopher Nkunku and Cole Palmer, who netted his 12th of the season against Wolves.
The Blues would be fourth in the Premier League were the table based on expected goals and even though their recent away record is rotten, they have bagged a consolation in four of those six defeats.
After cancelling each other out in the original tie, the replay promises a few more fireworks with Aston Villa and both teams to score priced at 3/1 with bet365.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Tip 1: Aston Villa to win & both teams to score – 3/1 with bet365
Shooting gallery open at Villa Park
Despite drawing a blank in the first game, Villa and Chelsea still managed nine shots on target between them and can combine to hit double figures in the replay.
The Villans are fifth in the Premier League for shots on target per game this season, averaging over five per match and Chelsea have been struggling to protect goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic.
He faced seven shots against Wolves on Sunday having had to deal with 13 in the game before that at Liverpool. Those two displays have helped push Chelsea’s shots on target allowed average above five per game in the league.
Having been pretty tight at the back for much of the season, Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has seen an uptick in his workload of late, facing four or more shots in five of the last seven games.
Most gambling sites have set the shots on target line at 9.5 and there’s enough attacking talent available to both managers to take the over in this instance.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Tip 2: Over 9.5 shots on target in the match – 10/11 with Unibet
Luiz to help punch Villa’s fifth round ticket
Luiz played one of the passes of the season to set Watkins on his way for Villa’s second goal of the game at Sheffield United as part of a midfield masterclass from the Brazilian.
He’s now been involved in 14 goals (seven scored, seven assisted) for Villa this season and could run the fourth round replay if Chelsea can’t slow him down.
Having been trading mainly in goals earlier in the season, more recently he’s been having a bigger impact laying on goals for his team-mates, although he’s still often got himself into a position to have a shot on goal.
Luiz has had a shot on goal in 10 of his last 12 appearances and has registered two in each of Villa’s previous meetings with Chelsea this season. He also had the ball in the back of the net in the original cup tie, only for the goal to be ruled out for handball.
With Luiz also on penalty duty against a Chelsea team that’s conceded a spot kick in each of its last two games, there looks a good chance for Luiz to get involved in another Villa goal on Wednesday.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Tip 3: Douglas Luiz to score or assist – 7/4 with bet365
Fancy a free bet on Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Several bookmakers are offering free bets to use on this week’s FA Cup fourth round replays, including the pick of the ties at Villa Park.
Bet365, who have two of the top prices on our three Aston Villa vs Chelsea predictions, are offering up to £30 in free bets to new customers when they sign up using the bet365 bonus code INDY2023.
Once signed, deposit and bet between £5 to £10 into your bet365 account to receive three times that value in free bets. So, to get the full £30 in free bets, users will need to deposit and wager £10 on a selection with odds of 1/5 or greater.
Once you’ve opened your account with bet365, you’ll also have access to the bookmaker’s UK online casino, featuring some of the best slots games currently on the market.
Before signing up for any new betting sites, make sure to read the terms and conditions first and if you are having a bet on the FA Cup, or any other sport, remember to gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
