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Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Tips
- Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – Evens with Betway
- Kai Havertz to be shown a card – 9/2 with Betfred
- Jefferson Lerma over 1.5 fouls – 10/11 with bet365
The pressure is mounting on both Mikel Arteta and Roy Hodgson as they prepare their teams to meet in the Premier League’s Saturday lunchtime kick-off (12.30pm, TNT Sports 1).
A disastrous festive period for Arsenal in which they took one point from three games has seen them fall five points behind league leaders Liverpool and football betting sites have subsequently pushed the Gunners out to 8/1 to win the title.
An FA Cup third round loss at home to Liverpool dented Arsenal’s trophy prospects further and they could do with a response at home to Palace.
Arteta’s men edged out the Eagles 1-0 at Selhurst Park in the reverse fixture, extending their winning run against their fellow Londoners to three games on the bounce.
Palace are also in need of a pick-me-up after a run of two wins from the last 15 games in all competitions, while they currently sit just five points above the relegation zone.
Hodgson is the favourite to become the next Premier League manager to lose his job after being jeered by the Palace fans during the midweek loss to Everton in the FA Cup.
And the Premier League odds are forecasting more pain for Palace, making the visitors 10/1 outsiders, while Arsenal are a best-price of 1/3.
The Gunners will be expected to get the job done, but it would be wrong to expect a stroll in the winter sunshine for Bukayo Saka and co.
Scrappy win good enough for the Gunners
Arsenal have had nearly two weeks to stew on the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool in the FA Cup during their winter break, a result that left the players kicking themselves after passing up so many chances.
The Gunners’ profligacy in front of goal has become a real source of frustration. In their last two games, Arsenal have had 48 attempts on goal and registered a combined 4.58 expected goals, and yet they’ve failed to score on each occasion.
Liverpool and West Ham, the last two visitors to the Emirates Stadium, have managed to ride out the early storm and then punish Arsenal, and that will be the aim of a Palace side with some noteworthy results away from home.
Hodgson masterminded a 1-0 win at Old Trafford earlier in the season, while they drew 2-2 with Manchester City, 1-1 at West Ham and only lost at Chelsea 2-1 due to a stoppage-time penalty.
Palace can be a tough nut to crack and have lost just one of their last five visits to the Emirates Stadium.
The direct style of Eberechi Eze means they’ll pose some threat on the counter attack too, although a lot will hinge on Eze taking the game to Arsenal from an attacking stance for Palace given they are missing their other creative talent, Michael Olise.
Without Olise, it’s going to be hard work to breach a defence that has the best expected goals against figure in the division and allows the second fewest shots per game on average.
Arsenal will back themselves to keep Palace at arms’ length, that’s not the major concern. The big problem is whether they can break down a team that ranks top six in the division for expected goals against and average shots allowed per 90 minutes.
The Gunners have looked timid in front of goal recently and could be missing their first-choice striker, Gabriel Jesus, as he continues to nurse a knee injury.
A repeat of the 4-1 success Arsenal enjoyed the last time they hosted Palace looks unlikely, but they’ve created enough in recent games to have scored and fresh from a break, they should get on the board here.
After studying the match result markets on betting sites, backing a low-scoring Arsenal win is the standout option.
The Gunners have a good record at home to teams outside the top six this season and may just grind out the victory they are so desperate for
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Tip 1: Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – Evens with Betway
Havertz in hot water
Arsenal have collected a league-low 32 cards in the Premier League this season, five of which have been shown to Kai Havertz, and yet the German is a bigger price to be carded again than five other potential starters for the Gunners on betting apps.
Havertz is expected to drop back into midfield for this clash after struggling as Arsenal’s No 9 against Liverpool for a fixture that could get a little tetchy if the home side don’t make an early breakthrough.
Only Bukayo Saka (23) has given away more fouls than Havertz (22) in the league, and that’s with Saka having seen significantly more time on the pitch than the former Chelsea man.
Palace are the fifth most fouled team in the league, so Havertz will need to be careful not to attract referee Paul Tierney’s attention.
Tierney doesn’t show too many cards (3.58 per Premier League game) but there’s the potential for Havertz to land in hot water if Palace can frustrate their hosts.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Tip 2: Kai Havertz to be shown a card – 9/2 with Betfred
Lerma likely to get stuck in
Jefferson Lerma faces a busy afternoon in the heart of Palace’s midfield trying to break up Arsenal’s attacking exploits and his exuberance in recent games has seen him boost his foul count significantly.
In Palace’s last five games, Lerma’s foul total for the season has doubled with the Colombian penalised at least four times in three of his last four appearances.
Despite his regular infringements, Lerma has only picked up one booking in that five-game stretch, so rather than put him forward to be carded, we’ve picked out over 1.5 Lerma fouls on bet365.
Lerma was taken off after 70 minutes against Everton in the FA Cup in preparation for the Arsenal clash, but rarely leaves a league game early, maximising his potential time to infringe.
Lerma averages 1.5 fouls per game in the league this season and given his recent behaviour, we’re backing him to commit at least two fouls for our final Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Tip 3: Jefferson Lerma over 1.5 fouls – 10/11 with bet365
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
