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Ajax vs Chelsea tips
- Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals – 21/20 bet365
- Lauren James to score any time – 5/6 10Bet
- Second half highest scoring – 21/20 SpreadEx
Amsterdam is the next stop on the Emma Hayes’ farewell tour when Chelsea Women take on Ajax Women in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie on Tuesday evening (5.45pm, TNT Sports 1).
The Blues have won every major domestic honour under Hayes’ tenure, but are still to win a European title, losing out to Barcelona in the 2021 final.
Chelsea look like a team on a mission this season though, easing through the group stage with four wins six matches. They ended their Group D campaign with an emphatic 4-0 win over Paris FC, taking momentum in the knockout phase.
Ajax have proved to be no pushers in this campaign, coming home as runners-up on goal difference to Paris Saint-Germain in Group C.
The Dutch outfit edged out Georgia Stanway’s Bayern Munich for second place in the section, thanks in part to two late own goals from Roma that gifted Ajax a vital win.
De Amsterdames are entering new territory in the knockout stage, having never previously advanced beyond the last 16. Challenges don’t come much tougher than the English Women’s Super League champions, but Suzanne Bakker’s side are a formidable outfit on home soil.
Ajax are massive underdogs with football betting sites with a price of 6/1 available to win the first leg.
Hayes and her team are odds-on, but it may not be straightforward for the Blues to take control of the tie.
Ajax may struggle to maintain home form
Ajax won all three of their group games at home, including their vital 2-1 triumph over Roma on matchday six that allowed them to progress to the quarter-finals.
They were confident in the early stages of their Champions League campaign, brushing aside Zurich to reach the group stage and then dispatching PSG and Bayern to put themselves in a strong position.
Bakker’s side had a slight wobble against Roma as Elisa Bartoli put the Italian outfit ahead.
But, Tiny Hoekstra equalised before Kramzar’s own goal sealed Ajax’s place in the last eight. They’ve beaten three quality teams at home, although they will need to raise their game against Chelsea, even if the visitors are slightly depleted.
The Blues are priced at 13/2 with betting apps to win the Champions League this term.
Sam Kerr’s injury doesn't help Chelsea’s chances of claiming the crown for the first time, but there is still enough pedigree in the ranks to send Hayes out on a high note.
Chelsea come into the game fresh off a vital win over Arsenal in the WSL, keeping them narrowly ahead of Manchester City on goal difference at the top of the standings.
Their Champions League form was impressive in the group stage, dropping only four points in draws with Real Madrid and Hacken. Their victory over Arsenal highlighted their strength in depth and clinical edge in the final third with Lauren James leading the way.
Although Ajax won all three of their group games, they had an expected goals (xG) of 0.3 in their victories over Bayern and Roma. That does not seem sustainable against a team of Chelsea’s calibre, although they’ve still managed to score in every home game.
We’re backing the Blues to get the win and we’ll cover the potential of an Ajax goal by pairing it with over 2.5 goals at odds of 21/20 with bet365.
Ajax vs Chelsea Tip 1: Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals – 21/20 bet365
James to get off the mark
Kerr is Chelsea’s leading goalscorer in the Champions League this season, scoring five goals in just four appearances.
The Aussie’s absence will loom large over the rest of the campaign after she sustained a torn ACL in January. All eyes will be on James to step up to replace Kerr in the final third.
First, she needs to get off the mark in the Champions League this season. James has made five appearances in the competition, although she has only started twice. The 22-year-old has been in exceptional form in the WSL, scoring 13 goals in just 14 appearances.
James got her side off the mark in the win over Arsenal, and has been on the spot in big games in the past, notching a hat-trick against her former side Manchester United – her second of the campaign.
For Chelsea to fulfil their aspirations, James needs to be at her peak, starting with their quarter-final showdown. We like her odds of 5/6 with 10Bet to score any time against Ajax.
Ajax vs Chelsea Tip 2: Lauren James to score any time – 5/6 10Bet
Chelsea to grow into the game
It will not be a surprise to see Chelsea play with an element of caution and take stock of the game in the first half.
Given that Ajax have to travel to West London in the second leg and have a poor away record, it’s probable that Hayes will set her side out to be difficult to break down and force the Dutch side to open up in their search for goals.
That could play into Chelsea’s hands, especially in the second half. Ten of Chelsea’s 15 goals in the Champions League this season have come after half-time.
Using the pace of James along with the attacking guile of Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, Guro Reiten and Sjoeke Nusken, there could be space to exploit. Betting sites have priced up the second half as the highest scoring and we’re inclined to agree at odds of 21/20 with SpreadEx.
Ajax vs Chelsea Tip 3: Second half highest scoring – 21/20 SpreadEx
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Last Updated: 19th March 2024, 04:31 PM
