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Ajax vs Aston Villa betting tips:
- Ajax or draw double chance – 23/20 with BetUK
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 4/5 with bet365
- Brian Brobbey to score any time – 11/4 with bet365
If a match between Ajax and Aston Villa were taking place 30 years ago, it would be between two clubs who had both won the European Cup within the previous decade or so.
A tie in the Europa Conference League obviously does not carry the same weight, but Aston Villa are favourites on gambling sites to win the tournament under European expert Unai Emery. Ajax, meanwhile, are sixth in the outright market but will rapidly move up if they can knock out the one Premier League side in the competition.
Not only are Villa expected to reach the next round, but football betting sites believe they will win at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Thursday evening (5:45pm, TNT Sports). Football history would suggest it would be crazy for Ajax not to be favourites, but they are having a poor campaign.
Ajax vs Aston Villa tip: Amsterdammers underrated by the bookies
The Dutch side are currently fifth in the Eredivisie but were bottom as recently as November. For context, you must go back to 2005/06 for the last time they finished as low as fourth, and they have won the title seven times since then.
By contrast, Villa are flying. They are well placed to finish fourth in the Premier League, a mark they last reached in 1995/96, with betting sites making them odds-on to secure Champions League qualification in the top four odds.
Their pursuit of this goal may affect Emery’s team selection here, as his side hosts fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday lunchtime and would extend their lead over them to eight points with a win.
Even though there is nothing relevant in terms of a head-to-head record – Villa won the one previous meeting in 2008/09 – there is a strong point of reference. Ajax were in the same Europa League group as Brighton prior to dropping down into this competition and lost both matches 2-0. Even if the scorelines flattered the Seagulls, the combined expected goal score was 2.3 versus 0.9 in their favour across the two meetings.
However, the second of those games was only Ajax’s third under current manager John van 't Schip. During his time in charge, only PSV Eindhoven have amassed more Eredivisie points, only they and Feyenoord more on a per-game basis. The Brighton loss was their last home defeat too.
Ajax’s nine match unbeaten run on home turf includes a 1-1 draw with PSV, the only Dutch side who are comparable to Villa in Opta’s team rankings (19th compared to 13th). The visitors here only won one of their away games in the Conference League group stage, and while it occurred in the Netherlands at AZ Alkmaar, Ajax can avoid defeat against a somewhat-distracted and possibly understrength Villa side.
Ajax vs Aston Villa Tip 1: Ajax or draw double chance – 23/20 with BetUK
Goals at both ends
The only previous clash of Aston Villa and Ajax ended in a 2-1 home win, and whether we get a repeat here or not, it’s reasonable to expect a similar level of goal scoring.
Villa are joint-second in the Premier League this season for matches in which there were at least three goals and both teams scored, with it occurring in 17 of their 27 matches. It has been the outcome in six of their last eight on the road, and one of the exceptions still saw five goals.
It has been a similar story in Europe. A bet on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals on betting apps paid out in four of six group stage games, with their trip to Zrinjski Mostar only just falling short by ending in a 1-1 draw.
While not as successful so often for Ajax in Europe, it paid out in their home match with Bodo/Glimt in the previous round. Three-quarters of their Eredivisie matches have seen both teams score and a higher proportion saw three-or-more goals. This game could be a classic.
Ajax vs Aston Villa Tip 2: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 4/5 with bet365
Daylight Brob-bery
Ajax have a couple of players who have contributed to big wins against Villa in the past. Nine years ago, Chuba Akpom assisted a goal in a 5-0 Arsenal win over the Villans, while Jordan Henderson did likewise in a 6-0 Liverpool victory at Villa Park the following year.
While both will likely feature, Akpom has only started one of his last six appearances while Henderson has yet to score or set up a goal since joining Ajax in January. There are far more sensible selections on offer in the goal scorer markets.
Chief among them is Brian Brobbey. He has scored 15 Eredivisie goals this season, at least twice as many as any of his teammates. He didn’t find the net in the previous round of the Conference League but even allowing for that he has 11 goals in his last 11 matches and he usually starts.
The 22-year-old, who was linked with Arsenal and Manchester United in January, can impress Premier League suitors with a goal against Villa.
Ajax vs Aston Villa Tip 3: Brian Brobbey to score any time – 11/4 with bet365
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
