Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
PDC World Championship final predictions
- Luke Humphries -2.5 handicap – 13/8 at Unibet
- A 170 Checkout – 2/1 at BetVictor
- Over 35.5 180s – 10/11 at BetMGM
Luke Littler could be the sporting story of the year and now has his sights set on completing his fairytale run at the 2024 World Darts Championship with victory in Wednesday's final (8.15pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Teenager Littler had never stepped up to the Ally Pally oche before this tournament yet has rumbled some far more experienced players en route to the title decider.
Chris Dobey, Raymond van Barneveld and Rob Cross have all been sent packing from the competition, while Tuesday’s 6-2 semi-final triumph over Rob Cross was a display of masterful darts.
However, UK betting sites reckon opponent Luke Humphries will come out on top in the final on Wednesday evening, pricing him at 8/11 to win and leave Littler to pick up the £200,000 runner-up cheque.
Humphries was favourite among darts betting sites heading into the tournament and our ante post pick for the Sid Waddell Trophy has steadily improved as the rounds have progressed. Having overcome a few testy encounters in the opening rounds, on Tuesday he threw a 108.74 average in his 6-0 victory over Scott Williams.
To put that into context, it’s among the top 10 averages of all time at the World Darts Championship.
Any other year and Humphries would be a far heavier favourite to lift the trophy. However, Littler’s incredible tournament and ability to rock more experienced opponents means the bookies haven’t gone all-in on the world no.3.
After studying the prices and markets on betting apps, here are our three PDC World Championship final predictions.
Humphries to win with room to spare
The 2024 World Darts Championship is a best-of-13 set match at Alexandra Palace, and this longevity favours the more experienced player. There’s a reduced chance that Littler can ruffle Humphries’ feathers and pinch a quick win before the higher seed composes himself.
The race to seven sets is a marathon, not a sprint. Humphries can afford to miss a few doubles and still comfortably win here. Experience should play a part.
When you consider the third seed has dropped only one set in his last two matches, Humphries may even ease across the line at 13/8 with Unibet to cover a -2.5 handicap.
For the bet to win, Humpries would need to win the final by at least three sets. Any other outcome and the wager will lose.
PDC World Championship final Tip 1: Humphries -2.5 handicap – 13/8 at Unibet
Big occasion could equal big checkout
Humphries and Littler are each in the form of their lives heading into the final. Combined, there’s the possibly one will nail a 170 checkout.
Humphries bagged his first of the competition in the demolition of Williams on Tuesday. Littler’s highest checkout this winter is 164.
Both men have a checkout rate of over 40 per cent and both have nailed 11 century-plus checkouts in this tournament. They’re pretty evenly matched in terms of zoning in on the doubles and don’t mind a go at the bull either.
BetVictor price a 170 checkout scored at any time during the final at 2/1 and given neither man has shown many nerves up to this point, one could deliver a big finish.
PDC World Championship final Tip 2: A 170 Checkout – 2/1 at BetVictor
180s galore in title decider
Combined, Humphries and Littler have scored exactly 100 maximums from their 60 legs played at Ally Pally. That averages out as a 180 every 1.6 legs.
On Wednesday we could witness as many as 65 legs over 13 sets. By that average, there may be as many as 104 maximums.
Of course, it’s highly unlikely we’ll witness 65 legs in London. That would be mayhem. However, if both players were to win at least one leg per set, and we get at least 10 sets during the night, then we could be on for around 65 maximums.
Both players are on top form and betting on 180s at the World Darts Championship final is a very common wager. The latest PDC World Championship odds suggest there’s an 88.9 per cent chance of us witnessing over 28.5 maximums on Wednesday.
We need to look way beyond that when you consider the talent at the oche and will back over 35.5 180s with our final PDC World Championship prediction.
PDC World Championship final Tip 3: Over 35.5 180s – 10/11 at BetMGM
PDC World Championship final betting tips
- Luke Humphries -2.5 handicap – 13/8 at Unibet
- A 170 Checkout – 2/1 at BetVictor
- Over 35.5 180s – 10/11 at BetMGM
Get a free bet on the World Darts Championship final
The action draws to a close at Ally Pally on Wednesday and punters wishing to follow any of our predictions for the final can get a free bet on the action with bet365.
Bet365 are currently offering new customers up to £30 in free bets when they sign up using the bet365 promo code INDY2023 and deposit at least £10.
Bet365 also operate one of the best online casinos and new users can get 50 free spins when they join.
Before signing up for any bookmaker, always read all the terms and conditions of the offer and remember to gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
