Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
New Zealand vs Australia predictions
- Steve Smith under 93.5 runs – 5/6 bet365
- William O’Rourke to take three or more wickets 1st innings – 6/5 Betway
- No New Zealand century scored – 13/10 Unibet
New Zealand and Australia open up their two-match Test series at Wellington's Basin Reserve on Wednesday (10pm, TNT Sports 1).
Australia warmed up for the Test matches by completing a 3-0 whitewash in the T20 series, inspired by Tim David’s heroics in the first T20I that set the tone for the three games.
Pat Cummins now leads his team in red-ball action against the Black Caps overseas for the first time since 2016. Australia have a dominant record over New Zealand, winning 10 of the last 13 series, including three on the bounce.
In terms of Tests, Australia have won six in a row against their Antipodean rivals, so the hosts will have to raise their game to win the Trans-Tasman trophy.
New Zealand are fresh off a 2-0 victory over South Africa, albeit Tim Southee’s side faced a weakened Proteas line-up.
Cummins’ side will be aiming to bounce back following a shock defeat to the West Indies in their last Test outing, which squared the series at 1-1.
New Zealand top the World Test Championship heading into the series, but Australia are odds-on with cricket betting sites to start with a win in Wellington.
Will Smith fire as an opener?
Steve Smith made the curious decision to move from No 4 in the batting order to open alongside Usman Khawaja against the West Indies.
In two of his four innings, he failed to make an impression, but he finally displayed his brilliance in the second Test match with an unbeaten 91, although Australia fell narrowly short of their victory target.
The 34-year-old is at a strange point in his career as he has seemingly lost his chance at playing in the World T20, while he is now trying to carve out a new role in Test matches.
For such an accomplished player, Smith is perhaps showing that he still has something to prove. Facing Tim Southee, Matt Henry and new star William O’Rourke will be a challenge that he may not relish, even if he does have a fantastic record against New Zealand.
Smith averages 58.23 with two centuries and five fifties to his name and has notably passed 50 in his three innings in New Zealand. Those knocks were in 2016, when at the peak of his powers, and Smith is not quite the same player he was then.
Betting sites have set the line at 93.5 total match runs for Smith in the first Test, and we’re taking the under for the 34-year-old to get off to a shaky start against the Black Caps at odds of 5/6 with bet365.
New Zealand vs Australia Tip 1: Steve Smith under 93.5 runs – 5/6 bet365
O’Rourke to make an impact
New Zealand were dealt a hammer blow when Kyle Jamieson was ruled out for up to a year with a stress fracture of his back.
With Trent Boult unavailable due to his lack of red-ball action and Neil Wagner announcing his retirement from international cricket, pace bowling options are thin on the ground for Southee and his team.
Southee remains consistent, while Henry’s development has been key to easing the pressure on the skipper without Boult. But, O’Rourke’s performance against South Africa was eye-catching and all the more important for New Zealand's future.
Although it was against a second-string Proteas batting unit, O’Rourke dominated with the ball in Hamilton. He claimed nine wickets on his Test match debut, including a five-for in the second innings.
The 22-year-old used his 6ft 5in frame to generate bounce out of the pitch to cause South Africa problems. Those skills will be crucial against the Aussies as he seeks to build on his outstanding first cap.
After looking at betting apps, we’re backing him to take three wickets or more in the first innings at 6/5 with Betway.
New Zealand vs Australia Tip 2: William O’Rourke to take three or more wickets 1st innings – 6/5 Betway
No New Zealand centurion
Kane Williamson was imperious with the bat during New Zealand’s victory over South Africa.
The 33-year-old capitalised on a weakened Proteas bowling unit to score three centuries in four innings, taking his career haul to 32 Test match hundreds. He and Smith have the most centuries among active players, while Joe Root is narrowly behind on 31.
Williamson has been the Black Caps’ key batter, but success against Australia has been fleeting. Compared to his career average of 55.90, Williamson’s statistics decline to 41.11 runs when at the crease against the Aussies.
He does have two centuries and two fifties among those knocks, although he has only posted one score above 50 in his last 11 innings against Cummins and company.
That is a concern for New Zealand, who could be without Devon Conway for the first Test. Outside of Williamson and Conway, there are not a lot of proven performers that can cope with the quality of Australia’s experienced attack.
As a result, we’re predicting that no New Zealand batter will score a century at the Basin Reserve at odds of 13/10 with Unibet.
New Zealand vs Australia Tip 3: No New Zealand century scored – 13/10 Unibet
How to get free bets for cricket betting
Gambling sites are offering free bets to new customers that can be used to wager on cricket.
TalkSPORT BET are one of the newest operators in the UK and are offering £30 in free bets to new customers.
All you have to do is create an account, opt in on its welcome offer, deposit £10 via debit card or Apple Pay and then bet £10 on any sport on a selection with odds of evens or greater.
Once your qualifying wager is settled, you’ll receive £30 in free bets to use on the sportsbook.
Read all the terms and conditions of talkSPORT BET’s welcome offer before signing up. With all bets, gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
