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Brighton vs Arsenal betting tips
- Arsenal to win to nil – 2/1 Betway
- Under 2.5 goals – 13/8 William Hill
- Arsenal -2 corner handicap – 7/5 BoyleSports
With the fixtures of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City staggered by the television companies, the picture in the title race will evolve across every weekend remaining in the campaign.
City play at Crystal Palace on Saturday lunchtime and football betting sites expect them to win.
Three points there will lift the defending champions over the Gunners, who then travel to the Amex Stadium to face Brighton in the evening kick-off (5.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
With Liverpool at Old Trafford on Sunday, a ground at which they were beaten just three weeks ago, this could be a massive weekend for Mikel Arteta and his title challengers. A win against the Seagulls and the Reds will be under real pressure against Manchester United.
Arsenal are overwhelming favourites in the Premier League odds to get the three points on the south coast, with the hosts available at a price of 9/2 to damage the Gunners' title prospects.
Brighton vs Arsenal tips: No goals from the Gulls in Gunners win
Both teams were in action on Wednesday evening, with Arsenal winning 2-0 against Luton. After a loss at Anfield on Sunday and a stalemate at Brentford in midweek, Brighton will be glad to be back at the Amex Stadium.
They have been a little inconsistent this season though. None of their last nine league matches has seen the same result as the fixture which preceded it.
They have proven very hard to beat at home, though. While three of the top four are still to visit, West Ham are the only team to leave with three points in 2023/24.
This means Roberto De Zerbi’s side are the sole club outside the top three to have suffered fewer than three league losses in front of their own fans in this campaign.
Arsenal have not had it all their own way against the Seagulls either, losing three of the previous five meetings. The sides traded away victories last season, with the Gunners winning 4-2 on the south coast before Brighton gained revenge in north London with a 3-0 triumph.
However, Arsenal won 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium in December and this match should play out in similar fashion. The Gunners have been spectacularly solid on the road this season, conceding just 11 goals in 15 away games and have kept clean sheets in their last four in a row.
This impressive record is deserved too, with Arsenal conceding just 10.7 expected goals in these matches. Only six teams have mustered as much as one xG when hosting them and nobody has got above 1.3.
While Brighton have frequently been sturdy defensively at home, it’s telling that both Liverpool and Tottenham had 2.3 xG and at least three Opta-defined big chances at the Amex. Arsenal could get opportunities to score.
And with them leading the league for wins to nil, with seven of their 12 occurring on the road, we're backing the Gunners on betting apps to triumph while shutting the Seagulls’ attack out.
Brighton vs Arsenal Tip 1: Arsenal to win to nil – 2/1 with Betway
Go light on goals
Arsenal will want this match won with minimum possible fuss. They host Bayern Munich in the club’s first Champions League quarter-final match since 2010 on Tuesday, so won’t waste unnecessary energy chasing a big score line here.
While this fixture featured six goals last season, it has tended to be on the low scoring side. Just one of the four meetings at Brighton prior to that paid out on over 2.5 goals, and the match in question only did so thanks to Neal Maupay scoring a winner in the 95th minute.
Most of Arsenal’s away games against half decent teams have been low scoring in 2023/24 too.
Yes, there was a 6-0 win at West Ham, but every other game they’ve played at the home of a side currently in the top nine saw no more than two goals. The Gunners’ last two European games on the road fit this criterion too.
With Arsenal’s near water tight defence likely to keep Brighton at bay and them largely saving their big scores for the relegation strugglers, we like the value with betting sites for under 2.5 goals on Saturday evening.
Brighton vs Arsenal Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals – 13/8 with William Hill
Arsenal in the corner
If the league were decided by corners, this match would be a hotly contested relegation scrap. Only Newcastle, with 9.5, have averaged fewer total corners per game than Brighton (9.6) and Arsenal (9.8).
But unless you bet on a very low total, you’re better off taking a corner handicap bet on Arsenal -2. This selection has paid out in 19 of the Gunners’ 30 league matches this term, more than for any other side.
They won the corner count 10-1 when hosting Brighton, and while the Seagulls have yet to lose this bet at home, they have also done so on the road at Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United.
Big teams seem to be corner kryptonite for De Zerbi’s men, so the masters of this bet could claim another win here.
Brighton vs Arsenal Tip 3: Corner Handicap: Arsenal -2 – 7/5 BoyleSports
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Last Updated: 5th April 2024, 02:36 PM
