The government must admit its errors and reset the strategy – it is time to go for ‘Zero Covid’

‘Zero Covid’, which seeks to lock down cases rather than whole countries, has been used across East Asian and Pacific nations and has – to a large degree – succeeded in eliminating the virus

Young fans attend a rugby match in New Zealand earlier this month, a sign that life is gradually returning to normal in East Asian and Pacific nations (Getty Images)

When news of the successful vaccine trials was announced, the nation heaved a sigh of relief. But while the vaccines offer much-needed light at the end of the tunnel, normal life is unlikely to return for many more months – perhaps not even until next winter.

In the meantime, as a nation, we need to decide whether we carry on with the failed strategy of lockdowns, high caseloads, and thousands of needless deaths – or whether we follow the example of those countries that have beaten back the virus.

That we are again in lockdown is the result of the government’s failure. It was necessary only because the government didn’t get the virus under control. The government needs to use this moment to admit it has got things wrong and reset its strategy. That should mean going for “Zero Covid”.

A “Zero Covid” strategy, which seeks to lock down cases rather than whole countries, has been used across East Asian and Pacific nations and has – to a large degree – succeeded in eliminating the virus. Take the confirmed caseload over the past 14 days. The UK has had over 330,000 cases. In countries pursuing “Zero Covid”, the numbers are far fewer. There have been just 130 cases in Australia, 38 in New Zealand, 40 in Taiwan, 289 in China, 101 in Vietnam, which has a larger population than the UK, and 88 cases in Thailand, whose population is the same.  

Had we experienced the much lower death rates of these “Zero Covid” countries, the UK could have had deaths numbered in their hundreds – not the grim milestone of 50,000 deaths we hit last week.

This much more successful approach is because East Asian and Pacific countries learnt from their experience with the 2003 SARS virus and put in place proper public health investment and practices to suppress the virus. There is simply no reason why we cannot follow such a strategy here. Indeed, it is deeply reckless that we haven’t.

So what would “Zero Covid” look like? Well, firstly, it would look like a huge step towards normality. Scenes of packed rugby stadiums in New Zealand and nightclubs in Wuhan, where the virus originated, show something resembling our previous lives could safely return if “Zero Covid” is successfully pursued.  

It would be a big boost to the economy. “Zero Covid” wouldn't falsely counterpose saving lives with saving the economy. It would protect both by driving down the virus to low levels to give businesses the greater certainty they need to plan and invest. A sustained economic recovery simply isn’t possible if we’re flitting in and out of restrictions.

Using a “Zero Covid” strategy, we must get cases low through this lockdown, which the government is now hinting may be extended into the new year. Then, once low enough, we can use test and trace to find and isolate cases.  

Sorting out the deep flaws in “test and trace” by axing the failing private contractors and investing in the local NHS is vital. But it isn’t enough. For people to actually isolate, there needs to be a real support package in place. That would include sick-pay at real living wage levels. For those living in cramped housing, it could mean offering free hotel rooms, as South Korea has done.

It would seek to reduce the virus transmission from schools through blended learning with rotas of when children go to school and when they learn online. Smaller class sizes could be created by hiring community spaces and re-recruiting qualified teachers. And in universities, teaching would move largely online and tuition fees would be scrapped in recognition of this.                                                 

All of this is about getting the virus to low enough levels to be able to track down the cases effectively and support people to isolate. It’s definitely a tough task. But in the summer we were nearly there, with cases below 1 per 100,000 people.  Instead of driving that down even further, the government recklessly told people to go out and spend, to go to work and get back to school, with disastrous consequences.

We must learn from those mistakes. If we get to December and repeat them, the virus will simply take off again and we will be forced back into necessary restrictions that harm lives and livelihoods.

In such a scenario, there is a real danger that right-wing Conservative backbenchers or even Nigel Farage’s new party will exploit growing frustration to push the government onto an even more disastrous path of “living with the virus”. That risks many thousands more needless deaths, more damage to people’s well-being and more economically damaging restrictions.

There is a better way. “Zero Covid” is a progressive solution to the Covid crisis but it will only happen if progressives make the case for it.

Richard Burgon is Labour MP for Leeds East