We’ve passed the first anniversary of the Ukraine war – there won’t be a second

As of now any end to the war is unlikely to be on better terms for Ukraine than were on offer before Russia invaded, writes Mary Dejevsky

It is hard to see how Ukraine will still be fighting this time next year (EPA)

The first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was marked, as was fitting, with raw personal emotion and grave official solemnity. Just one week on, however, and the focus – or so it seems – has shifted; at least outside Ukraine.

From looking back, the tendency now is to look forward. And where until now that forward-looking view, in so far as it was expressed, could be summed up as “Onward to a glorious Ukrainian victory!”, the tone has suddenly become a little less confident. A sliver of doubt seems to be creeping in.

That applies even in the UK, which has been one of the staunchest believers in an outright Ukrainian victory, in its official statements, as in its think-tank assessments and its mainstream media reporting. We will be in this, so the mantra still runs, “for as long as it takes, whatever it takes”.