Brace yourself, Rishi, things can only get better… for Starmer

Labour’s stunning by-election gains in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire echo the pre-1997 Blair years – and confirm that Rishi Sunak is careering towards the exit, writes John Rentoul

Keir Starmer with his winning Mid Beds candidate, Alistair Strathern (PA)

Now we can believe in the second coming of Blairism. Labour’s stunning by-election gains in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth were comparable to those won by Labour under Tony Blair in opposition. If that points to a swing in a general election similar to Blair’s, Labour is heading for a majority of up to 60 – because Keir Starmer starts from a lower base than Blair. But there is at least a year to go. Things can get worse for Rishi Sunak.

Blair was absurdly popular the moment he was elected Labour leader in July 1994. He started off 30 points ahead in the national opinion polls, and his lead drifted down to about 20 points when the election was called three years later.

Starmer, on the other hand, started off as nothing much and still seems to be gaining ground. Blair’s best by-election result, and Labour’s best ever, was in Dudley West in the first few months of Blair’s leadership. He scored impressive victories later, including in South-East Staffordshire, which includes Tamworth, but on lower swings. Under Starmer, Labour won a bigger swing in Tamworth yesterday – 24 per cent against 22 per cent for Blair in South-East Staffs.