Why delaying the election won’t save Sunak from defeat

The prime minister’s ‘hold on to nurse for fear of something worse’ strategy will not be able to withstand Keir Starmer’s promise of real change, warns Andrew Grice

Rishi Sunak’s pitch will be: the economy is on the right track, don’t let Labour ruin it (PA)

Rishi Sunak’s decision to delay the general election until the autumn was inevitable, given Labour’s 18-point opinion poll lead – but it will not save him from defeat.

There are no new election campaigns in politics, only updated versions of old ones. Sunak’s delay makes his strategy clearer. He has placed his chips on voters feeling the benefits of an improving economy by October or November and rewarding the Tories for lower inflation, tax cuts, higher wages, a fall in interest rates, and the pain of higher mortgages being less than it might have been as rates come down (though it will still be painful for many of the estimated 1.6 million people who renew their fixed-rate deals this year).

Sunak’s pitch will be: the economy is on the right track, don’t let Labour ruin it. In other words: “Hold on to nurse for fear of something worse.” Elections often boil down to “time for change” versus “let us finish the job; don’t let the other lot ruin it”. In 1959, the Tories won re-election on a slogan: “Life’s better with the Conservatives. Don’t let Labour ruin it.” In 1987, Margaret Thatcher won her third victory with: “Britain is great again. Don’t let Labour wreck it.” In 1992, John Major’s Tories retained power with their lethal “Labour’s tax bombshell” and “Vote for recovery. Not the start of a new recession.”