Blair-like landslide or black-swan catastrophe? Let’s hope tomorrow tells us who is set for No 10

How the leaders react to local election triumph and disappointment could define the next general election, writes John Rentoul

No doubt both main parties will claim to have done better than expected. (Getty/PA)

Two rival stories clash today. One is that Rishi Sunak has steadied the ship and is slowly clawing back the support the Conservatives need, if not to retain power at the next general election, at least to deny Labour a majority and to make Keir Starmer’s premiership precarious.

The other is that Labour is miles ahead, heading for a majority government, if not a Blair-like landslide; and that the Conservatives have suffered such a blow to their credibility, thanks to the combined efforts of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, that Sunak cannot hope to recover without a black-swan catastrophe visited on his opponents.

We will have early indications of which story fits the facts better in the morning, from the minority of local councils that are counting their votes overnight, and a better idea will emerge on Friday afternoon, when more of the votes are counted.