Think Sunak can magic a Major-style win? Dream on...

After 13 years of Tory rule, John Major defied the opinion polls to win a shock election victory. Surely Sunak has a chance do a 1992? No, says Andrew Grice, he’s hurtling towards 1997...

Unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, there are many differences compared to 32 years ago (AFP via Getty)

During another week of damaging plotting and infighting, the Conservatives tried to keep their spirits up by recalling 1992. After 13 years of Tory rule, John Major defied the opinion polls to win a surprise election victory.

Rishi Sunak’s “better the devil you know” campaign, built on the economy, will copy Major’s – the country has turned a corner after hard times, so voters shouldn’t risk Labour turning the clock back. Pre-election tax cuts were announced then and will come in this year’s Budget in March. Labour is again led by a leader who, according to the Tories, has changed his mind so many times he can’t be trusted. As one minister told me: “It worked in 1992. It can work again this year.”

Unfortunately for Sunak, there are many differences with now and 32 years ago. In 1992, the public judged they had already had the change they wanted in 1990, when Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and ditched her hated poll tax. Sunak has tried to be the change candidate – but flopped.