Boris Johnson could well delay lockdown easing – he can’t afford any more mistakes

Mixed messaging and U-turns were one of numerous errors made during the last 12 months. Clarity is key

Boris Johnson has said "we may need to wait" beyond 21 June for the lifting of all Covid-19 restrictions in England. This more cautious approach is at odds with the attitude at the start of the pandemic, according to Dominic Cummings's testimony to MPs this week.

Perhaps the words of his former chief adviser have given the prime minister cause for reflection? Or at least the Indian variant – which is now responsible for between 50 per cent and 75 per cent of new cases – did. Johnson has been clear that there is no evidence yet that would force a date change on ending restrictions, but it is right to give the public the information that something might change.

On Thursday, for the second day in a row, the number of new Covid-19 cases was more than 3,000 – the first time we have seen that level of infections since mid-April. The majority of these cases are clustered around "hotspots"; with testing targeted towards areas where the variant is known to be spreading, and scientists have always said that cases were always due to rise when indoor mixing was re-introduced.

However, as the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, said on the BBC this morning – while reiterating that there is nothing in the data yet to suggest the need for a change in plans – it is "impossible for anyone to know what the situation will be like in a week or two weeks' time" and: "I can't guarantee one thing or the other."

Hence why some caution, and transparency over information is key. Mixed messaging and U-turns were one of the numerous errors made during the last 12 months, and there was a similar sense earlier this week over the local lockdowns that weren't. The government had to backtrack on advice for people in several areas worst-hit by the Indian variant to “not travel” following widespread confusion.

That is the type of error that has been avoided in the run up to late June. The government has been very clear that 14 June is the date that a final decision over what happens on 21 June has to be made by. Ministers have to be as clear as they can in the run up to that, because people have waited a long time for restrictions to be lifted – and doubt is not what we need.

The success of the vaccine rollout has been the government's saving grace for the last few months, with almost 39m people having now received their first dose of the vaccine in the UK, alongside 24m second doses. How much it has weakened the connection between a rise in cases and hospitalisations will be key to what happens to the ending of restrictions. As Cummings made clear in his testimony, the death toll has already been far too high – Johnson cannot afford for it to climb significantly again.

While some will not like the idea of a delay to the end of Covid-19 restrictions, it is sensible to be clear about an element of caution now – with cases up 20.5 per cent during the last seven days, compared with the week before.

We received a reminder of the consequences of ill-thought out planning during Cummings's testimony this week. The prime minister cannot afford for mistakes to be repeated.