The message Starmer and Labour must heed from by-election voters

For all of Labour’s large current national poll lead, it appears that too many voters were drawn back into the Conservative camp as a result of a little local difficulty. John Curtice explains what that might mean for 2024

New MP Keir Mather (centre), with Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner (PA)

Two very different results. In Selby and Ainsty, a seemingly safe Conservative seat, Labour achieved a remarkable success. But in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which looked like an apple that would fall easily into the party’s lap, Labour suffered an unexpected disappointment

What lessons might there be for the party in these two very different results?

First, the good news. The Conservatives are indeed in deep electoral trouble. The 23.7 per cent swing in Selby is the second-highest swing from Conservative to Labour in by-election history, outpointed only by the 29.1 per cent swing that Tony Blair achieved in Dudley West in 1994. Never before in a by-election have the Conservatives lost so safe a seat to Labour.