The one election you’re not watching - but should be

This race is a harbinger of America’s future

(Getty)

In 2019, Democrat Andy Beshear managed a razor-thin victory over incumbent Republican Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin. Though I was overjoyed to see the back of a scandal-ridden, bigoted administration in my home state, those Democrats did not understand Kentucky politics or history – both of which were on Beshear’s side.

Zoom forward four years, however, and Beshear’s reelection campaign looks very different. His GOP challenger is Daniel Cameron, the state’s current attorney general and the first Black man to hold that office. An acolyte of Donald Trump and MAGA true believer, Cameron has made opposition to Beshear’s pandemic-era policies and Trumpian culture wars central to his campaign – and thus made this race less uniquely Kentuckian and more a harbinger of America’s future.

A central issue has been Beshear’s Covid-related policies, a point of contention between the two men. In 2020 Cameron, acting in his role as attorney general, sued the governor over his use of executive orders to - among other things - close schools, churches, and businesses to protect people from the virus. The General Assembly legislated to curb Beshear’s emergency powers, and Cameron defended the law in court – defeating Beshear.

This may be the kind of move that plays well to MAGA voters, but how will it fare among other Kentucky voters? At one point, Beshear’s response was the most highly approved of any governor in the nation, and he has consistently been met with widespread support. Indeed, Beshear remains one of the most popular governors in the country. And while recent polls sponsored by both campaigns show a narrow race (with each campaign’s poll showing their candidate winning, naturally), an Emerson College poll from the beginning of October showed Beshear leading Cameron by sixteen points.

The fact that (other than in polls commissioned by Cameron) Beshear is consistently shown to be leading bodes well for Democrats, indicating that even voters in the ruby red Bluegrass State are tiring of Trumpian nonsense. Along with Covid, Cameron has run on cultural issues popular with his ultra-conservative base, but repel more moderate voters. He is noted for his hardline stance in support of the state’s abortion ban, which only provides exceptions for the life of the mother.

Last year, Kentucky voters rejected an amendment to the state constitution which would have stated explicitly there was no right to abortion. Cameron signaled he would sign a bill into law granting exceptions in the cases of rape and incest. Buried in his announcement is a clever rhetorical out. Cameron knows that such a bill is unlikely to ever reach his desk, making his promise a very empty one.

Of course, empty promises are to be expected with Daniel Cameron. Following the killing of Breonna Taylor by police who burst into her home on a no-knock warrant, he promised “a thorough and fair investigation.” The cops were never charged in her death, though, and many believe that Cameron fixed it so they never would be.

Questions quickly emerged about Cameron’s investigation, regarding witnesses, the ballistics report, and Cameron’s basic competency. “He had no expertise to say he’d be a great attorney general,” Shannon Ragland, the publisher of the Kentucky Trial Court Review, told the Louisville Courier-Journal in 2020. “That he would screw up (the Taylor case) is somewhat predictable. I don’t know if we knew it would be this bad.”

Contrast this with Beshear, who in addition to the pandemic has also received high marks from Kentuckians on his handling of two natural disasters. In 2021, tornadoes devastated much of Western Kentucky, killing 80 people. Last year, it was floods in Eastern Kentucky in which 45 people lost their lives. “The fact that he shows up is most important,” one voter from Mayfield, which was destroyed by the tornado, said earlier this year. “You can tell that he really cares about us.” And it is voters in rural counties that Cameron needs if he has any chance of winning. To succeed he will need every vote he can get. Perhaps that is why is attempting to nationalize this election.

In this strategy lies the reason we should watch this election. Cameron has demanded this election be a referendum not on Andy Beshear, but on the Trumpian culture war being waged by Republicans since 2020.

If Beshear does win, his victory will provide a roadmap for President Joe Biden going into 2024. It will show the path to victory lies not in fighting every battle in the Republican culture war the GOP candidate – be it Trump or someone else – tries to goad him into fighting. Rather, victory lies in competence and compassion. These are two things both the Governor and the President excel at. They are things Cameron and, frankly, every Republican running for their party’s nomination, fail miserably at. And they are the two things voters very well may care about the most.

If it is Cameron who wins, it will be a clear indicator that Biden is far more vulnerable than we may think. It might also show that Trumpian cultural clashes can still draw out voters the way “Build The Wall” and “Muslim bans” did in 2016. That is, after all, the type of politics Cameron seems to be running on. If it succeeds, this race will galvanize the GOP into even more extreme cultural positions.

Whereas four years ago the commonwealth was behaving as it typically has – ousting a governor after one term; sending a Democrat to Frankfort – this cycle, traumatized and culture war-weary, it looks like it may be a harbinger of things to come. Whatever the outcome on November 7, for that reason alone this election is the election to watch.