Europe's future: The Greek debt crisis is about far more than one country’s fiscal irresponsibility. An entire continent is at stake

With the fine mess that pro-European Europeans are making of Europe, who needs Eurosceptics? Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, declared the Greek bailout referendum to be an in-out referendum on EU membership. A “no” vote this Sunday, would, he implied, not just force Greece out of the eurozone, it would lead inexorably to Greece falling out of the European single market and the European Union.

Greece, and not the UK, might therefore become the first country to leave the EU. In theory, a “Grexit” would not pose the same existential threat to the EU as a “Brexit”. Greece is smaller and poorer. It does not stand at the centre of the world’s financial system as Britain does, or possess its clout as a trading, diplomatic and military power. All the same, a Greek exit would be calamitous for Greece, calamitous for the EU and for the world.

Yes, calamitous for the Greeks, whatever the anti-austerity ideologies of the left and the anti-European ideologues of the right may say. Abandoned to its own political demons and administrative incompetence, it would face a miserable future. It could become part of the half-circle of political extremism and turmoil which already reaches around the eastern Mediterranean from the Balkans to Libya.

A Greek departure would also mark the first unravelling of the process of European solidarity and integration which began more than 60 years ago. In practical terms, the loss of Greece would not damage the EU or European ideal beyond repair. But symbolically, it would say that European integration, or even European cooperation, can be placed in reverse gear.

This point has been well grasped by Ukip and Conservative Eurosceptics in Britain, and by the far-right National Front in France. They have been cheering on, against their nature, the hard left-dominated government of Alexis Tsipras as it has alternately cajoled, defied and, ultimately, baffled other eurozone governments.

The German Chancellor and French President understand the wider implications of Grexit. They have been brought to the precipice nonetheless. There are several intertwining reasons: the amateurishness of the Syriza government; the bureaucratic rigidity of the IMF and the European Central Bank; the incorrigible incompetence and corruption of all previous Greek governments; and the exaggerated fury of German taxpayers who are unwilling to subsidise “ungrateful” Greeks.

Another crucial factor has been the electorally driven reluctance of the governments of Spain, Italy, Ireland and several eastern European countries to reward any course which diverges too far from their own painful (but largely successful) economic health cures.

Mr Juncker may have expressed himself clumsily yesterday but he is right. Reports suggest that many Greeks know that he is right. Whatever the obfuscations of the Greek government, the referendum is simple. Greeks are being asked to vote on whether they want to stay in the euro and in the EU.

There is every reason to believe that they will vote “yes”, infuriating Eurosceptics who believe “democracy” and “Europe” are incompatible words. If they do, the financial mess facing Greece and Europe will remain unchanged. Greece will confront a difficult future. All the same, if they do vote “yes”, the Greek people will deserve much credit for saving their country from an even more calamitous future and for saving the European Union from itself.