It’s hard to see how Theresa May will be in any position to secure a Brexit deal come the new year – a people’s vote is the best we can hope for

With less than three months to go until the deadline for Britain’s withdrawal, the danger of an accidental, no-deal departure is clear and present

A year ago, all political talk was of whether the UK government and the EU would agree a withdrawal deal that would secure Britain’s passage out of the European Union. Twelve months on, a deal in principle has been done – but its supporters, in this country at least, are thin on the ground.

Neither side in the Brexit debate regards it positively. The best that its fans can say of it is that it is the only sure way in which EU withdrawal can be delivered. It certainly doesn’t seem to be the kind of Brexit that most Leave voters had in mind two and a half years ago. And let’s not forget that a future trading arrangement hasn’t even been negotiated yet.

Liam Fox, one of the government’s last big Brexiteers, says that if MPs reject the withdrawal deal currently on the table, the chances of the UK leaving the EU will only be 50-50. That may give succour to those who argue for a second referendum, although his intention is presumably to warn parliamentarians that if they do not vote for the deal, there will be hell to pay from the public. Sure enough, he contends that a rejection of the agreement negotiated by the prime minister would “shatter the bond of trust between the electorate and parliament”.

That rather facile claim remains the cry of some Brexiteers: that the “will of the people” as expressed in June 2016 requires MPs to vote in favour of the current deal. It is wrong because the bond of trust between the public and parliament is fundamentally based on the latter being expected to act in the best interests of the former. Given that the present deal was not an option on the EU referendum ballot paper, it is not unreasonable to suppose that voters would prefer their elected representatives simply to determine whether the agreement is or is not in the national interest.

Indeed, there are a good many Brexiteers who argue that it is not. Some of them thus say we should depart without a deal – despite myriad warnings from almost every direction that doing so would cause significant harm to the economy (and potentially lead to shortages of medicines and some foodstuffs). Others stick to the belief that there is a better deal to be done. Whether they are being naive or disingenuous or simply living in cloud cuckoo land is anyone’s guess.

Prior to the Christmas recess, it was clear that Theresa May could not get her deal through the Commons. With no room for any further substantive negotiation (most notably on the question of the Irish border backstop), it is difficult to see that anything will have changed by the time MPs return in the new year – unless they are stung by Mr Fox’s grim warning or have had their minds changed by persuasive constituents over a glass of festive sherry.

What, then, will 2019 bring for Brexit? With less than three months to go until the deadline for Britain’s withdrawal, the danger of an accidental, no-deal departure is clear and present. We should be in no doubt that such a scenario would be disastrous. If, when they are finally given the chance to vote on it, MPs reject Ms May’s deal, it is imperative that the prime minister acts to ensure we do not topple over the cliff edge. That means either revoking Article 50 or seeking a deadline extension from the EU.

Meanwhile, the clamour for a second referendum will surely become ever louder. Indeed, the thing that has changed most in the past year is that the prospect of the public being given a final say on Brexit now appears genuinely realistic. When The Independent launched its campaign to that end in July, only a few in parliament were prepared to countenance the possibility; now, even some cabinet members are discussing the potential need for a second vote.

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, says Britain must “get its act together”. Well, in a few weeks’ time the view of parliament will be clear. If it is what most believe it to be, the prime minister – who has no doubt done what she believes is her best, having been dealt a terrible hand – must then take steps to prevent a no-deal exit, and to determine the view of the people in 2019. That may lead to difficult moments, but it is the only way a route to Britain’s future can be plotted with confidence.