Boris Johnson barely has a plan for the economy now – what will he do when no deal pushes us into a recession?

Editorial: If the Brexit slowdown proves more severe than first thought and the world economy slows down more rapidly, borrowing will rise, putting the UK in an even trickier situation

No sooner has Boris Johnson returned to Downing Street from his UK sunshine tour than the chief-gloomster-and-doomster himself, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, rained all over the prime ministerial parade.

Thankfully the UK still has an independent Bank of England and an independent-minded governor who is willing to spell out to ministers and public alike some unpalatable truths about the no-deal Brexit we may now be moving towards. Mr Carney was careful to stress, as he should, that government policy is still to secure a deal, and thus a transition period; but that the possibility of no deal has been there since the day after the referendum and remains there now.

Even in the case of a smooth Brexit, with a deal and a transition period, the governor sees a one-in-three chance of a recession. With a no-deal Brexit, that likelihood would rise and, in any case, a no-deal Brexit, like any other Brexit scenario, would mean lower growth and higher inflation than would otherwise be the case. It is as simple as that.