Austria's far-right may have lost, but only by a hair's breadth

Norbert Hofer's defeat in Austria will not quell far-right extremism, because the genie is out of the nationalist bottle

Van der Bellen won 50.3 per cent of the vote in the Austrian presidential election (HELMUT FOHRINGER/AFP/Getty Images)

Independent candidate Alexander Van der Bellen was yesterday confirmed as Austria’s new President; but as Heads of States in European countries go, he must be among the most neglected of modern times. That is because he defeated, by an exceptionally narrow margin, Norbert Hofer, who despite ludicrously casting himself as a centrist, would in fact have been Europe’s first far-right leader in a long time. In defeat, Mr Hofer showed grace and humility. On the campaign trail, he lacked both.

The presidential candidate was defended by some as less extreme than the late and more flamboyant Jörg Haider. However, over the course of his career he has adopted extreme nationalist positions that have occasionally ventured into near-fascist territory. His defeat in Austria will not quell him, because the genie is out of the nationalist bottle, not just in Europe but across the world.

Geopolitics today is marked by the sudden pre-eminence of strongman leaders who flaunt their machismo on the international stage and reject globalisation in favour of a nativist account of the threats to voters. Nigel Farage and Donald Trump are more entertaining and less extreme versions of this mentality; the latter, it seems, cannot be ruled out as the next leader of the free world. Defeating an ideology of nativism will be hard and time-consuming, and requires an emotional appeal to voters who are inclined to make scapegoats of outsiders, while being disinterested in rational arguments about, for instance, the economic benefits of large-scale migration.

It will also require moral and political leadership that is clearly and sorely lacking at the moment. One of the main causes of Mr Hofer’s new-found eminence is the refugee crisis that is sweeping across Europe. That crisis is, to put it mildly, a problem without a solution. The Syrian civil war, from which many thousands of refugees are fleeing, has lasted many years, and there is no end in sight. While war rages in that region, refugees will stream into Europe, and nativists will have their moment in the sun.

But the other cause of resentment among those folk inclined to vote for the likes of Farage, Trump and Hofer is not a short-term phenomenon – and also lacks an immediate or easy solution. Globalisation and rapid technological innovation are depriving poor workers in the richer world of their livelihoods. Whole industries, from high-street retail to publishing and manual labour are being wrenched from solidity to nothingness. Living standards may be rising at a thrilling rate in the developing world, but among richer nations, fury and frustration is the order of the day.

What can be done? Immediately, not much. But over the medium-term, the only solution is to equip a new generation with the skills, productivity and wages to lead decent lives. This will require visionary, brave and honest leadership of a kind not currently forthcoming.

Europe has narrowly avoided electing a far-right man as a Head of State. But as once said of Hitler by Bertolt Brecht, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. The new nativists of Europe and beyond blame outsiders for the sorrows of their people. Patient explanation is unlikely to quell their passion. Somehow stemming the flow of refugees on the continent’s doorstep, and offering a vision of open, tolerant, inclusive societies that can give poor workers a chance, is the only way to quell the Hofers of today. For now, Austria has quieted him. But he and his like are going nowhere fast.