Brexit vote: Triumph for Theresa May on customs union

The government defeated a rebellion by pro-EU Tories by six votes, and the prime minister heads into the summer break next week in a stronger position

Nicky Morgan, the former minister who led the rebellion by soft-Brexit Conservative MPs, declared confidently: “There is a majority in this House for a customs union and I hope the House will demonstrate this shortly.” It turned out that there wasn’t such a majority after all.

Labour and Tory rebel hopes were raised by the government’s defeat in the previous vote, on European medicines cooperation. The government lost by four votes, which was only its second defeat on Brexit legislation – the first was on Dominic Grieve’s “meaningful vote” amendment in December.

But on the customs union Theresa May was saved by four and a half Labour Eurosceptics. Frank Field, Kate Hoey, John Mann and Graham Stringer voted with the government, along with Kelvin Hopkins, currently suspended from the Labour Party. They didn’t back the government on the medicines vote, so their switch made the difference between victory and defeat.

It was quite a coup of the theatre, as they say in France, and a triumph for Julian Smith, the chief whip, whose ability to keep his Tory troops in line has been often questioned in recent weeks. It turns out that he can count after all.

This is a good result for the prime minister. If she had lost the customs union vote it would not have been the end of her. She would have ploughed on regardless, because the amendment could not dictate what happens in the Brexit negotiations. The amendment said “it shall be the objective of Her Majesty’s Government to achieve” a customs union of the UK and the EU. But if Her Majesty’s Government did not think this a good idea, its negotiating heart would not be in it.

Now Theresa May has won, so narrowly, it would suggest to the EU side in negotiations that she might just be able to get the Chequers plan through the House of Commons, but that she cannot possibly make any further concessions. Her negotiating position, which could have been made ridiculous, is instead strengthened.

As for the defeat on medicines, I expect the government can live with it. The government’s Brexit white paper has already said the UK wants to stay in the European Medicines Agency. The amendment, drafted by Phillip Lee, who resigned as a minister because he did not agree with Theresa May’s approach to Brexit, wants to go further, to keep Britain in the “European medicines regulatory network partnership”, of which the European Medicines Agency is part.

After these knife-edge votes, the government sheepishly abandoned its plan to start the summer recess five days early. So parliament will sit as originally planned on Monday and Tuesday next week. Then Theresa May will head into the summer break in a rather stronger position than she appeared to be in a few hours ago.