Madrid Masters 2016: Roger Federer withdraws to boost Andy Murray ranking chances

Amid concern over his back Federer opted not to risk playing at this week's tournament

Roger Federer (Getty)

Roger Federer has enjoyed a largely injury-free career, but 2016 is turning into a year to forget for the former world No 1. Having already missed more than two months of the season following knee surgery, Federer now has a back injury which has forced him to withdraw from this week’s Madrid Masters.

The 34-year-old Swiss, who also had to delay his return to competition in March because of flu, has played only one tournament since the Australian Open. He hopes to compete in next week’s Rome Masters but will inevitably go into the French Open later this month with very few matches under his belt.

Just as he did when he pulled out of the Miami Masters two months ago, Federer travelled to this week’s tournament before having to withdraw. He practised in Madrid on Saturday but felt a problem with his back and decided not to risk playing. He would have been due to play his first match on Wednesday.

“I don’t want to take more chances as I know I’m not going to be fully ready,” Federer said. “I would rather play it safe and rest up now and get ready for Rome. I’m sorry to the tournament for coming and leaving without playing. I arrived and I was OK and then I practised on Saturday and hurt my back a little bit and stopped early. I’m very disappointed, to say the least.”

Federer had decided only last week to play in Madrid. Since last month’s Monte Carlo Masters, in which he lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals, he has been practising in Switzerland.

“I've been doing a lot of practice on clay,” he said. “I don’t always need a lot of matches to feel 100 per cent ready. With my experience and the way I feel about big tournaments, if I have matches, great. If I don’t, I trust in my game, in my mind, that I’ll be fine regardless of the preparations.”

Federer’s withdrawal should improve Andy Murray’s chances of going into the French Open as world No 2. The Scot is currently 390 points ahead of third-placed Federer, but has 1,000 points to defend this week as the Madrid champion following his victory over Rafael Nadal in last year’s final. The tables will be turned a week later, when Federer has 600 points to defend as the Rome runner-up in 2015.

With their 2015 points from Madrid and Rome stripped out, Federer would be 90 points ahead of Murray in the rankings, which means that the Scot will have to do a little better than the Swiss over the next fortnight to keep his current position at the French Open. The world rankings are based on a rolling total of points won over the previous 12 months.

While players always insist that they do not pay much heed to them, the rankings can have a significant bearing on tournament draws. With Novak Djokovic secure at No 1 in the list, a major prize for whoever is at No 2 in Paris will be the knowledge that they cannot face the Serb before the Roland Garros final.

Andy Murray practicing at the Madrid Masters (Getty)

Djokovic has never won the French Open but is odds-on to take the title this year. Although he suffered a surprising defeat to Jiri Vesely first time out at last month’s Monte Carlo Masters, Djokovic has won the three biggest tournaments of the year so far, at the Australian Open and the Masters Series events at Indian Wells and Miami.

Murray, who lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open final, was not at his best in Indian Wells and Miami but showed a welcome return to form in Monte Carlo last month. He eventually lost to Nadal in the semi-finals.

Stan Wawrinka, the world No 4, could in theory overtake both Federer and Murray but would probably need to win the tournament in either Madrid or Rome to do so. Wawrinka may be more concerned with holding on to his position given the outstanding form in recent weeks of Nadal, who is currently No 5.

After a difficult season in 2015, Nadal has won his first two tournaments of the current European clay court season. “I wasn't competing for titles in 2015,” the Spaniard said. “Now, in 2016, we will see. I am doing all I can to play at my best level. I’m happy with how I have been playing for the past three weeks of competition. I don’t know which Nadal I am going to find in Madrid, but I know that I am motivated, working well and I hope to be ready”

Murray practised with Nadal in Majorca last week and was clearly impressed by what he saw. “Rafa is still one of the best players on the surface and he still works as hard as he can on and off the court,” Murray said.

Djokovic said that Nadal was “definitely the player to beat” in Madrid. “Rafa is everybody’s main rival on clay courts because of his history on this surface and the results that he’s had throughout his career,” the world No 1 said. “This year, he’s already showing a much higher quality of tennis. He really played terrifically in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona. I’m sure he’s very motivated to do well here.”

Novak Djokovic (Getty)

Nevertheless the likelihood is that Nadal would have to go very deep in both the Madrid and Rome tournaments to have any chance of overhauling Wawrinka. Taking out their 2015 results in Madrid and Rome, Nadal would still be 875 points adrift of the Swiss.

With Nadal currently the second favourite behind Djokovic to win the French Open, the draw at Roland Garros could present a huge challenge for any of the top men. If the world rankings stay as they are, one of Djokovic, Murray, Federer and Nadal might have to beat all three of his fellow members of the “Big Four” to win the title.

Federer, whose place in the draw has been taken by Marcel Granollers, had been seeded to meet Nadal in the quarter-finals in Madrid, where the city’s altitude, at 667m above sea level, affects the playing conditions.

“The conditions are quite different in Madrid compared to those of other tournaments,” Djokovic said. “It’s high altitude and the ball flies through the air very quickly. You have to adjust to those particular conditions, so I’m glad that I arrived earlier. I’ve had some very good practice sessions and I’m just hoping to get the best out of myself this week.”