Federer's wonderful predictability makes 10th Slam look inevitable

The received wisdom is that the Australian Open is the most unpredictable of the Grand Slam tournaments. It comes too early to reflect true form, players are often carrying injuries from the previous year, the weather can be brutally hot and Rebound Ace is a surface that suits all styles.

That thinking, however, is far from confirmed by the statistics. The list of recent women winners is full of big names, while Thomas Johansson (No 16 seed in 2002) and Yevgeny Kafelnikov (No 10 in 1999) are the only men seeded outside the top 10 who have won the tournament in the last 30 years. Eighteen of the last 30 winners have been seeded first or second.

While it would be possible to construct a case for half a dozen potential female winners when this year's competition begins on Monday, predicting the male champion is becoming easier with each passing Grand Slam tournament. Roger Federer (right), has won nine of the last 14, including five of the last six. Since losing to Rafael Nadal in last year's French Open final, the world No 1 has won eight of nine tournaments entered, his only defeat coming at the hands of Andy Murray in Cincinnati in August.

This might be considered boring were it not for the fact that Federer's wonderful style, power and intelligence mark him out as one of the greatest players of all time. At only 25 years old, his nine wins in Grand Slam tournaments leave him just five short of Pete Sampras' record 14.

Brad Gilbert, Murray's coach, believes Federer can reign supreme for another five years. He thinks the Swiss, having seen off his own generation, is now determined to resist the challenge of the exciting new guard spearheaded by Nadal, Murray, Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet and Marcos Baghdatis.

"The thing that's most amazing about him is that he keeps getting better," Gilbert said. "He keeps adding to his game. Like Tiger Woods did for the other guys, he keeps pushing the envelope for everybody to get better. He's not going anywhere soon."

Nadal consistently gets the better of Federer on clay, but the world No 2 has not won an event since the French Open. Nikolai Davydenko is the most improved player in the top 10 but has a foot injury and there is little reason to expect Andy Roddick, Ivan Ljubicic, James Blake or David Nalbandian to reverse their own recent form against the world No 1.

If anyone is to challenge Federer it might have to be one of that new generation, of whom Djokovic and Murray are the men in form. The Serb won in Adelaide last weekend, while the Briton lost to Ljubicic in the Qatar Open final.

Murray wisely refuses to look beyond his first-round encounter with the world No 60, Spain's Alberto Martin. In the second round he would meet either Fernando Verdasco (the world No 35) or Paul-Henri Mathieu (51), his scheduled third-round opponent is Jarkko Nieminen (17), and Nadal could lie in wait in the fourth round.

At least Murray is in the opposite side of the draw to Federer. The two men practised together earlier this week at the Kooyong Classic invitation event and would have met in today's final had Murray not lost in straight sets to Roddick yesterday.

"It's almost better not to play him before the Australian Open," Murray said. "If he's going to start peaking before the Grand Slam, you don't really want to go on court with him when he's starting to up it."

The absence of Justine Henin-Hardenne, the world No 1, for "personal family reasons" and fitness doubts over a number of leading contenders have left the women's singles wide open.

Amélie Mauresmo, the defending champion, says she feels underprepared, which could leave the way open for Maria Sharapova, the top seed, who won the final Grand Slam event of last year. However, Kim Clijsters has shown the best form of all the leading women so far this season and looks the most likely winner, while Dinara Safina, Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Anna Chakvetadze are outsiders capable of springing surprises.

* Britain's Alan Mackin, Jonathan Marray and Katie O'Brien won their second-round qualifying matches yesterday, but Anne Keothavong lost in straight sets.