Six Nations 2017 predictions: Who will win, which players will stand out and will there be a Grand Slam?
From the introduction of bonus points to Ireland vs England at the Aviva - here is what will stand out during the championships
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Who will win and will it be a Grand Slam?
Ian Herbert (Chief Sports Writer): England - and yes. Despite the Irish threat, with Joe Schmidt’s players understandably buoyed by the win over the All Blacks in Chicago, it is impossible to see beyond Eddie Jones’ side for what could be a third Grand Slam in the Six Nations era. Not only because of the uncertainty surrounding Irishman Jonathan Sexton’s fitness but because Jones’ camp still looks extraordinarily intense at close quarters. A Slam secured in Ireland on March 18? I think so.
Jack de Menezes (Deputy Sports Editor): One thing to expect over the course of the Six Nations is injuries, and England are in a position where they can’t suffer too many more to key players. That’s why I believe waiting until the final match of the championship before they travel to Dublin could really hurt England, and as such I think Ireland will sneak the title this year. Will it be a Grand Slam? One Grand Slam winner over the last four years suggests it won’t happen again this soon.
Jack Austin (Sports Reporter): Ireland – but no Grand Slam. They beat the All Blacks, the Wallabies and the Springboks in 2016 and the fixture list is kind to them this year. If they can avoid defeat to Scotland in the first game then I’d back them for the Grand Slam. Ireland have only lost three times in Cardiff since 1983 and you would back them against England at the Aviva Stadium with the Grand Slam on the line. Saying that, Scotland are the dark horses and I fancy them to stun a Jonathan Sexton-less Ireland in the opening game at Murrayfield.
Samuel Lovett (Sports Reporter): Ireland. Should they overcome the tricky challenge posed by Scotland at Murryfield, this will be their championship for the taking. Joe Schmidt’s men head into the tournament buoyed by their historic victory over the All Blacks last November and enjoy the home advantage in their crunch match against title rivals England. Eddie Jones’ men are undoubtedly in contention for Six Nations success but it’s only a matter of time before the pressure finally gets to them. Impressive as they’ve been at times, Jones’ relatively youthful side still has a lot to learn. Two tricky games on the road against Wales and Ireland could be their undoing, handing victory to the Irish in the process. And will it be a Grand Slam? Quite possibly.
Ed Malyon (Sports Editor): Ireland have fair claim, having turned around a disappointing Six Nations campaign to beat the southern hemisphere's leading lights. But I think the fixture list this year favours England and a further year into the Eddie Jones project I believe there is scope for further improvement. The ultimate goal will, of course, be 2019 but their depth should help Jones overcome an injury-ravaged squad with Owen Farrell still the most vital cog in this team.
Who will claim the Wooden Spoon?
IH: Italy. New coach Conor O’Shea is making the right noises but the inevitability of Italy’s struggle at a time when Georgia rugby looks so strong adds fuel to the argument that - as Sir Clive Woodward has argued this week - the wooden spoonists should play off against the European Nations championships winners for the right to be in next year’s Six Nations.
JDM: France’s progression under Guy Noves looks like bad news for Italy, who I believe will collect their third Wooden Spoon in four years. Scotland look like they’re in a good place this year and should be clear of the battle for last place – especially if they can turn over either Ireland or Wales at Murrayfield – so the Italy vs France encounter in Rome could prove to be the decider in the race to avoid last place.
JA: Italy. For argument’s sake they could catch Wales off-guard in the curtain raiser in Rome and they’ve developed a bit of a habit of beating the French every so often, but in one of the more unpredictable Six Nations in recent memory, this one is pretty nailed on already.
SL: Italy. The Azzurri may be in high spirits following their stunning 20-18 triumph over the Springboks, but the quality of rugby on offer among their rivals has risen to a level that they simply cannot reach. Expect Conor O’Shea’s men to put up a fight – with the potential to pull off a shock victory, as has been the case in past championships – but with the competition just too strong this year, Italy once again look set for the Wooden Spoon.
EM: Italy will fancy their chances when Wales visit a rain-soaked Stadio Olimpico on the opening weekend but their new era may take more time to hit the ground running than they've had. As ever, Sergio Parisse will be key to their success - however relative that term may appear - but even knocking off the Welsh in Rome may not be enough to avoid the maglia nera for finishing last.
Player to watch?
IH: Louis Picamoles. The French side are re-discovering a little of the old flair and the No 8’s move to Northampton has certainly improved him. He looks considerably fitter, too, showcasing great feet and a lovely off-loading ability - an old fashioned No 8 who any opponent will need to be good to stop. Hopefully, the fulcrum of a French side who will at long last will thrill us again.
JDM: Welcome back Jack Nowell. The Exeter Chiefs wing has not been seen in an England shirt since the summer tour of Australia, but he returns to the international fold in the best form of his life and could take the tournament by storm ahead of claiming a starting British and Irish Lions shirt. The 23-year-old is developing game-by-game, and while he has an try record for England with eight tries in 18 appearances, it’s his work to put others over the line that really catches the eye.
JA: Stuart Hogg is capable of turning games in a split second, and Jack Nowell was one of England’s top performers last year, but it’s the performances of George North which are most intriguing to me. He has been in the news for all the wrong reasons since last year’s championship – poor performances, concussion – but he is capable of tearing this tournament up. He was the top scorer in last year’s edition, including two beautiful tries. North needs to prove himself again in this Lions year and if he gets up and running against Italy in the first game, he will take some stopping.
SL: Maro Itoje. At just 22 years old, the Saracens forward embodies the emerging spirit of this current England side. Youthful, athletic, and brimming with raw talent. Such qualities saw him re-christened as 'Super Maro' during last year's Six Nations and now, one year on from his man-of-the-match performance against Wales, it's time the youngster showcased just how far he's come. Eddie Jones has always looked to keep players of Itoje's calibre grounded but if the versatile forward can deliver this championship, there's every chance the bullish Australian might just concede that England have a future leader in the making.
EM: Robbie Henshaw may be a surprise choice here but this could be a big coming-of-age tournament for him. The centre is more famous recently for being on the end of that tackle by Sam Cane when Ireland knocked off the All Blacks but if he can really break out during the Six Nations then he could be the difference between Ireland finishing third and first in the table. Playing Leinster partner Garry Ringrose alongside him will help his game even with Jonathan Sexton missing inside him.
Match to watch?
IH: Ireland v England. Inevitable answer, yet the schedulers could not have conceived of a better finale, pitching together two sides who potentially may enter the game knowing it is win or bust.
JDM: I know it’s currently a million miles away, but the finale of Ireland vs England really does stand out from the pack. If a Grand Slam is on the line by the time the match kicks off, then it really is the dream scenario. The last time the red rose crossed the Irish Sea with ambitions of securing a Grand Slam, they came back with their tails between their legs, and in Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Tom Wood, James Haskell, Ben Youngs and Danny Care, they have plenty of old heads that remember the hurt of that 24-8 defeat.
JA: Ireland vs England at the Aviva is being touted as the title decider, but I think the opening game, not the closing one, will be the one to watch. Scotland vs Ireland will set the tone of the tournament, with an Irish win putting them on the road for a Grand Slam and a Scottish win underlining their status as underdogs for the title. Wales against England at the Principality will be some spectacle to behold too – prepare for fireworks, literally.
SL: Wales vs England. Before travelling to the Aviva Stadium for one of the most eagerly-anticipated fixtures of the tournament, Jones’ men must first beat Wales in Cardiff. No easy feat indeed. With England’s 14-match unbeaten run the talk of the town, the Welsh will be particularly desperate to stop the Red Rose in their tracks – and where better to do it under the bright lights of the Principality Stadium. The outcome of this match could hold the key to Ireland and England’s overall success. Not one to miss.
EM: The final weekend when England travel to Dublin, on St Patrick's Day, will be quite something. It will almost certainly be the pivotal game of these championships.
What are you most excited about?
IH: Witnessing the new Wales under the captaincy of that quite wonderfully gifted player Alun Wyn Jones. He is one of those players whom The Independent’s Chris Hewitt always placed at the very top of the tree and that is good enough for me. Moving away under Rob Howley from the purely physical and aerial threat which won them the title in 2012 and 2013, it is a new incarnation for my own home nation. They have not won universal plaudits yet under Howley but there is promise.
JDM: From a personal point of view, it’ll be heading to Cardiff to experience a Wales vs England clash across the Severn for the first time. Having watched the 2013 Welsh demolition from home, covering the English response the following year and witnessing the World Cup heartache England endured in 2015, Cardiff promises to be another breathtaking experience in what makes this rivalry so special. From a tournament point of view, it’s hoping to see Scotland, France and Italy shake things up in one of the most competitive championships ever.
JA: The introduction of bonus points meaning more sides will be kicking to the corner, rather than the posts. It could also give the lesser favoured sides a better chance of causing an upset, with teams unable to resist the temptation to go for five points before they’ve got three. It’s introduction, of course, could mean nothing in the grand scheme of things but it a fourth try could also be the difference between a championship win or a plucky loser spot.
SL: Should England succumb to defeat at any point, it'll be interesting to see how Eddie Jones' men react. A true test of a team's mettle is their ability to pick themselves up after defeat and push on with the job at hand. With an average age of just 24, mental resilience and leadership across the pitch is what England now need to consolidate their credentials as one of the world’s best teams.
EM: We are at the halfway point in a World Cup cycle and there's a Lions tour on the horizon. There are players who, in the next month, will make or break the next two years of their lives and I'm excited to see which young players step up to the plate. Niall Scannell, Ellis Genge, Stuart Hogg and a raft of other talented players in their early 20s will be looking to make their mark.
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