Does anyone have the guile to steal France's crown?

The champions have had a woeful year but could prevail again as England have injuries, Ireland are strangely quiet, Scotland and Wales lack key ingredients and Italy need time

France

Consistency is key for Les Bleus after year of big defeats

Head Coach: Marc Lièvremont

Captain: Thierry Dusautoir

Last five years: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 1st

Man of the moment: Imanol Harinordoquy

There is experimentation, there is inconsistency of selection, and there is France under the stewardship of Marc Lièvremont.

If the head coach has a free hand when it comes to picking a team, some in the land of Les Bleus accuse him of abusing the privilege. He likes Julien Dupuy, the goal-kicking scrum-half from Stade Français; he doesn't like Julien Dupuy. He chooses Mathieu Bastareaud at centre because he's massive, then dumps him when the speak-your-weight machine says "one at a time, please". Julien Malzieu, the Clermont Auvergne wing, gets a chance after performing like a world-beater, then performs like a world-beater and is dropped. Asked to calculate the number of players capped by Lièvremont since 2008, Stephen Hawking is alleged to have replied: "What do you take me for? A genius?"

When Lièvremont succeeded the ultra-conservative Bernard Laporte after the last World Cup, his radicalism was widely applauded. He fast-tracked Morgan Parra, François Trinh-Duc and Maxime Mermoz into international rugby and invested in the brilliance of Maxime Médard. There was a boldness about the Tricolores, flashes of joie de vivre that had been lost under Laporte. At times last season, when they secured a third Grand Slam in five years, there was something about their attacking play that Serge Blanco and Didier Codorniou would have recognised. But there was something else in the mix a year ago: worrying signs of a return to Laporte-ist thinking, especially when England pitched up on a wet night in Paris and played some rugby of their own. The French record since has been horrible: 40-point spankings in South Africa and Argentina during the summer, a home autumn series scarred by a 59-16 loss to Australia that led to a public row involving all the key individuals. France should not be playing catch-up this close to a Grand Slam triumph, but that's the way of it. Strange, but true.

Is the Stade de France factor to blame? All too frequently since leaving the electrifyingly atmospheric Parc des Princes for somewhere bigger and quieter, the French have messed up in front of their own supporters. Lièvremont is not convinced by the argument. "We have had cruel defeats there, but there have been fantastic victories also," he points out. "We were booed last time and we cannot forget what happened against the Wallabies. But we have only three or four people injured, so the squad for the World Cup will not be so different to the squad we have now." A little consistency at last? We shall see.

Prediction: 1st

England

Desperate to break unwelcome habit of coming up short

Manager: Martin Johnson

Captain: Lewis Moody

Last five years: 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Man of the moment: Ben Youngs

England have the biggest rugby-playing population in the world, which is just as well, given the national team's current casualty rate. Had they been playing Tests during the Black Death, they would not have struggled so badly for numbers. As things stand, Martin Johnson and his back-room staff must build a whole new line-out almost from scratch – Tom Palmer, one of three France-based players in the squad – is the only fixed point left, and he will quickly become unfixed if he has one of his laissez-faire nights in Cardiff on Friday.

Johnson is also short of a back row – or rather, two-thirds of a back row, Nick Easter being one of the few loose forwards who has mastered the art of injury avoidance. He is also one of the few players in any position who goes out of his way to enjoy a pint or three after a game. Might there be some linkage here? Those who would prefer rugby not to become the preserve of the puritan must hope and pray this is the case.

Over the coming weeks, the truth of Johnson's England will be revealed. Those who saw the dawning of a new day in the victory over Australia last November assume that the improvement will continue through the Six Nations and on into the World Cup later this year. Those who admired that performance but resisted the temptation to go overboard – it is worth remembering that the same side were smithereened by a half-strength Springbok outfit a fortnight later – suspect that this competition will be anything but a cakewalk.

It is difficult to imagine the Welsh, the Irish or the French locking themselves in the panic room on account of England's pedestrian midfield, but Johnson appears committed to the Shontayne Hape-Mike Tindall combination. The alternatives are Riki Flutey, who is not quite the player he was when he ripped up the Boks on behalf of the Lions in Johannesburg a year and a half ago, and Matt Banahan, who may or may not become a half-decent No 13, but isn't one yet. How long before the campaign for a Jonny Wilkinson-Toby Flood alliance at 10 and 12 starts gathering pace?

If England can find a way to win in Cardiff, the tournament will open up for them. Three home games follow, two of them against Italy and Scotland, who struggle to score tries, and the other against the unpredictable French, who score tries but struggle with everything else. John Steele, the new chief executive at Twickenham, says anything short of a top-two finish will be disappointing, and he's right. There again, Johnson's England have been specialising in disappointment for much of the last three years.

Prediction: 3rd

Wales

Defensive frailty could undermine Red Dragons

Head Coach: Warren Gatland

Captain: Matthew Rees

Last five years: 4th, 4th, 1st, 5th, 5th

Man of the moment: Sam Warburton

Warren Gatland is a New Zealander – a former All Black, indeed, if not one of the Test variety – so when he says his countrymen consider Wales to be their most dangerous northern hemisphere opponents, we must believe him. "They say that for 65 minutes of a game in Cardiff, we make them work harder than anyone else," remarks the man from the farmlands of the Waikato. "They're never quite sure whether those 65 minutes will be at the start of a game or the end of it, but they know there will be 15 minutes when we fall off our game. It's a fair assessment. Unless we find a way of turning 65 minutes into 80 minutes, we'll keep coming up short."

Coming up short against England in the tournament opener on Friday night does not bear thinking about: partly because Wales must play away from the Millennium Stadium in three of the remaining four rounds, but mainly because any defeat by the bloody English casts the nation's soul into the bottom circle of sporting hell. There are more questions about this side than the coach could possibly answer in one go, but some are more fundamental than others. Can Lee Byrne, Leigh Halfpenny, Shane Williams and Jamie Roberts conceivably be in optimum shape after weeks – months, even – on the injury list? Will Mike Phillips' deep-seated belief in his own publicity continue to erode his mastery of the scrum-half's art? Can Gatland, having seen his tight-forward unit wrecked by the orthopaedic calamities affecting Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones, find some front-row salvation from somewhere?

The surviving member of that sharp-end Lions combination, the hooker and captain Matthew Rees, is playing exceptionally well, and provided the support he receives from the second-row partnership of Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones is as good as it should be, the reshaped Welsh pack should make do and mend. But like many of the misfiring Ospreys in the squad, Jones has been struggling to hit his level. The Red Dragons may have improved up front, but they are nowhere near good enough to operate at 80 per cent and get away with it.

Wales won a Grand Slam in 2008 and followed that up with an important victory over Australia. Since then? Nada. If their depleted scrum hangs together and their defence holds up, they could win three games. But "if" is a bigger word than it appears.

Prediction: 5th

Italy

Mallett builds for the future but is it enough for now?

Head coach: Nick Mallett

Captain: Leonardo Ghiraldini

Last five years: 6th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 6th

Man of the moment: Martin Castrogiovanni

Like all his rival coaches, Nick Mallett says he needs time. Unlike most of his rivals, he deserves it. When Martin Johnson succeeded Brian Ashton as England's head honcho, he inherited a team that had reached a World Cup final less than six months previously and a generation of national academy graduates with limitless potential. He was also given access to the biggest budget in the sport. Warren Gatland has been cut any amount of slack, while Marc Lièvremont has been humoured at every turn. Even Declan Kidney has had a charmed life, ushered as he was into an Irish system perfectly geared towards Test success.

Mallett? Let him tell it in his own words. "Italy got into the Six Nations on the back of a very strong side developed in the mid-1990s, but they were left behind when the game went professional and when I arrived, there was nothing in place to prepare players for the rigours of international rugby," he says. "Two years ago, there was a club final between Treviso and Viadana with six Italian-born players on the field. The game was going only one way: downhill."

Under Mallett's jurisdiction, domestic league rugby has been neutered in favour of the establishment of two regional sides strong enough to play in the Magners League. "It was a brave move by the president of the union, but together with the introduction of a proper academy system that means we might actually get to hear about a good 17-year-old from Naples, we're in a much more positive place," he continues. That means that come the 2015 World Cup, the Azzurri might be in a position to punch their weight. And now, in early 2011? Don't hold your breath.

Prediction: 6th

Scotland

Lack of cutting edge threatens to derail forwards’ hard graft

Head Coach: Andy Robinson

Captain: Alastair Kellock

Last five years: 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 3rd

Man of the moment: John Barclay

Last season's Scotland-England match in Edinburgh was a grim affair, although true connoisseurs of sporting trench warfare spotted the odd thing of beauty among the scrub. This year's match, at Twickenham in round four, could be equally scrappy for different reasons. Drawn in the same World Cup pool, the ancient rivals will be looking to score points in more ways than one, which never bodes well for a cork-popping explosion of champagne rugby.

The Scots are not much interested in the bubbles at the best of times. They like their rugby they way they like their whisky – hard and straight – and if it's an acquired taste for some, precious few north of the border will apologise. Andy Robinson, the architect of the wonderfully constructed England pack that secured the world title eight years ago, is building a very decent unit up there in Edinburgh, and it will be surprising if they come a bad second in the forward disciplines at any point during this competition.

Robinson loses Euan Murray for two Sunday games – the most devout scrummager in the European game will not break his Sabbath vows for anyone, so best not ask – and there is no guarantee that the back-row trio who tore up the Six Nations last time out will play as well this time, or even play together at all. Johnnie Beattie, the No 8, is only just back in circulation after long-term injury while Kelly Brown, a revelation in 2009, has been slightly less revelatory since his move south to Saracens.

They will win themselves some ball, even so. The debate surrounds what they might do with it. Robinson accepts that the lack of a cutting edge in attack leaves the Scots working too hard for their tries. "Our build-up rugby is good and we have some good strike runners, so the thing now is to create a framework in which we get the right people in possession in the right parts of the field," he says. "Look at the Italy game last year. Three times, we found a way over their line. Three times, the man in possession was Allan Jacobsen, who couldn't ground the ball. Allan is a prop. If it had been someone with pace, like Max Evans, it might have been different."

Not that Jacobsen is a problem for the coach. Quite the opposite. If his performance against the Springboks in November was any guide, he could make a proper name for himself over the coming weeks.

Prediction: 4th

Ireland

Kidney stays coy but fixture list could play into his hands

Head Coach: Declan Kidney

Captain: Brian O'Driscoll

Last five years: 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 2nd

Man of the moment: Stephen Ferris

There is no earthly reason why Ireland should by flying under the radar: their recent Six Nations record is excellent, their provinces are performing well in the Heineken Cup – even when Munster fail, Ulster succeed – and they have a bloke by the name of O'Driscoll in midfield who is the closest thing to a great player produced by a northern hemisphere country since England spawned Martin Johnson.

Yet things have been eerily quiet across the Irish Sea, and it is not all to do with the fact that Declan Kidney never shouts when he can whisper instead. True, they played a truly terrible half of rugby in losing to the Springboks during the autumn, but they went on to give the All Blacks a game before registering a record victory over Argentina. In addition, they have a back-row combination to die for – Stephen Ferris and Jamie Heaslip could win this tournament between them if they click – and they have France and England at home, which always helps.

Maybe the proximity of the World Cup has something to do with the downbeat message. Ireland have suffered some serious trauma in global tournaments of late and if Kidney fails to find himself a front row capable of going toe to toe with the best, they could suffer again. Perhaps this is why he spends his time bigging up the likes of Italy – "They used to be vulnerable in the last 10 minutes; not any more" – and playing so safe with his predictions, he offers no predictions at all. "Everyone starts from zero in this competition and by the end of the first weekend, three teams will have momentum and three won't." Thank you, Nostradamus.

At least Brian O'Driscoll has a view on Grand Slam prospects, or lack of them. "I know it's been done in each of the last three years, but winning five in a row is a really tough thing for anyone to do, which is why we took 61 years to manage it," he says. And Ireland's own chances? "If we can get our game together, we'll be in the hunt in some capacity." A warning, albeit a barely audible one.

Prediction: 2nd