Racing: It's all so easy - in hindsight

A FACT about horse racing that adds to the bemusement of punters is the retrospective confidence frequently expressed by a winner's connections. Does this indicate loose thinking on the part of newspaper and television experts, or that optimism has been suppressed to ensure an edge in the betting?

Listening to the gospel according to Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager, after Daylami turned the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes into a procession, seeing off Oath, the Derby winner, and brought home by Frankie Dettori five lengths clear of Nedawi, his stablemate, you would think that his triumph had been a foregone conclusion.

In listing Daylami's impressive record, pointing out that he has won nine of his 18 races in four countries, Crisford conveyed the impression that it had been extremely unwise of investors to ignore the five-year- old's credentials.

Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight, more attention should have been paid to the grey's stately demeanour when first coming under scrutiny in the sweltering heat that caused one or two his rivals to look as they were about to explode from the immaculately tailored coats.

Even by then, however, the general consensus was that Daylami could not be entirely trusted to see off his juniors. Conversations with sages of the turf endorsed the personal view that it was an extremely difficult race to call and prudence was therefore advisable.

Oath, after his Classic victory, would go off as the 9-4 favourite under Kieren Fallon, who incurred a pounds 1,250 - as he did at Epsom - when breaking away from the Derby parade as a settling manoeuvre, but no great confidence was held out for him either. A friend whose Derby musings proved spot on when Oath proved he stayed a mile and a half, was not so bullish this time. "You can never tell what the Derby takes out of them and the age factor comes into it."

Nevertheless, from the grandstand it seemed Oath was going easily enough, poised to challenge as they approached the turn into the short uphill straight. "Looks to have plenty in hand," my friend said. The story from there was told excitedly by Dettori in a small room that had been set aside for interrogation. "He takes about a furlong to get into gear, but as I tracked Oath off the final bend I was only a length or two off the pace and I knew I could make that up. As I went past Gary Stevens I heard him shout: `Go get 'em Frankie' and his voice was getting further and further away."

All this while Saeed bin Suroor, Daylami's trainer, was trying to get a word in edgeways. "I was a bit worried about the ground," he said, "but it wasn't a problem." Since he has now trained four of the King George's past five winners for the Maktoum family, bin Suroor could afford to let the winning jockey have centre stage, standing aside as a model of consistency.

By the time this cameo was unfolding before us, not much thought was being paid to an earlier event that took the life of Prince Of Denial when he fell on the first bend at Swinley Bottom in the opening race, bringing down Bawsian who was unhurt.

The assembly gasped when Richard Hughes, Prince Of Denial's jockey, was pitched sideways into the running rail, but he fared better than the horse, who broke a knee in the fall and had to be put down. A short while earlier, I had watched Prince Of Denial being led around the parade ring and Hughes in communication with David Arbuthnot, Prince Of Denial's trainer. Of course, nobody could have imagined that Prince Of Denial was nearing his end as the result of an accident rare in Flat racing. "It happens," somebody said, turning his thoughts to other matters.

The harrowing uncertainty of the turf left Arbuthnot inconsolable. As for Crisford he was more concerned with putting forward the view that everything about Daylami spells class.