Racing: Rafferty can build on his sand form in Lincoln

With most things in life, particularly golf and punting, the moment you think you've cracked it the great pointing finger emerges from the sky to ordain otherwise. No sooner have you reached the edge of the green in three on the long 10th (we're talking high-handicap novice lady here, not Ernie Els) than you chip into not just one of the bunkers guarding it, but all three successively. Similarly, just as racegoers had got used to the idea that it was actually possible to pinpoint the winner of the Lincoln Handicap in advance with three successive winning market leaders – Right Wing at 9-2 in 1999, John Ferneley at 7-1 joint in 2000 and Nimello at 9-2 in 2001 – home stormed Zucchero at 33-1 last year, rubbing salt into the wound by fending of the 5-2 favourite Adiemus in the process.

The Lincoln, in its 144th reincarnation today at Doncaster is the race bookmakers dream of as they lie basking on their Mauritian sun-loungers during the winter. During its eponymous days on the Carholme it produced three 100-1 winners (only one fewer than the Grand National, without the need for pile-ups) and in the 38 years since its transfer to Town Moor in 1965 half the victors have started at 16-1 or more.

Much is made of the effect of the draw down the straight mile, although anyone whingeing about that today would do well to remember the 1966 running, when a field of 49 meant that the runners had to start in two ranks, not so much a cavalry charge as Balaclava and Omdurman rolled into one. The punters came out on top, though, with the victory of the 8-1 favourite Riot Act, drawn 45. Those were the days when a high draw was considered essential and indeed, in the first 10 years at Doncaster eight winners and 25 placed horses came up the stands rails.

The recent trend, though, is almost a precise mirror-image, with the far side of the track seemingly the place to be. Now that trainers can pick their own starting stalls the perception may be self-perpetuating. And the result of yesterday's Lincoln consolation race, the Spring Mile won by 25-1 shot Aldora, confirmed the bias even without the aid of the scramble for low-numbered boxes for fancied runners at the draw ballot. The first four, and eight of the first 10, were in the favoured group.

Another modern statistic is that horses who have had a prep on the all-weather tend to fare well. Both the Paul Cole pair, John Ferneley and Nimello, did so, and Adiemus came so close after winning the Winter Derby. The answer may be written in the sand this year, too. A week ago at Lingfield, an hour after Adiemus and Bourgainville posted such a good efforts in finishing second and fourth in the Winter Derby, Rafferty (3.05) finished a less-heralded third, giving weight to all but two of his rivals, in a competitive seven-furlong handicap. He has a favourable draw, his trainer Clive Brittain's team are in top form and he surely represents each-way value, at least. Two other progressive types, Bourgainville (who has been gelded since last year) and Pablo are nominated the dangers.

However Adiemus fares, his Jeremy Noseda stablemate REQUITE (nap 4.35) should not be missed at Kempton. The three-year-old could not have impressed more when winning a maiden at Lingfield and is ready for this step up in trip and class.

Despite the overblown claims of the past three days sport at Doncaster, the domestic Flat season does not truly spring to life until after the Grand National and the start of the recognised Classic trials at Newbury and Newmarket. Across the water, though, they prime their big guns rather earlier and at the Curragh tomorrow, on the first day of the Irish season, interest will be intense as the first three-year-olds step out from Ballydoyle.

Foremost among them, in the seven-furlong Loughbrown Stakes, is Tomahawk, who is one of Aidan O'Brien's 25 entries in the 2,000 Guineas and 30 in the Derby. The Seattle Slew colt, who actually won the first race of his local season a year ago, was by no means considered the very best of O'Brien's Classic contenders at the end of last year, despite having taken second place in two of Britain's Group One races for juvenile colts, the Middle Park Stakes (to Oasis Dream) and Dewhurst (to Tout Seul).

O'Brien's other Classic entries in view will be the Sadler's Wells filly In The Limelight (1,000 Guineas and Oaks) in a Listed mile contest and the Seeking The Gold colt Septimus Severus (2,000 Guineas) in the seven-furlong maiden.