Racing: Flame inspires Chance to chase Cheltenham sequence

The year is young, Cheltenham some time away, but already, if we let history be our shepherd, there is a Festival certainty. Every time Noel Chance switches premises in the Lambourn valley he seems to be rewarded with a Festival winner. Shortly after moving into Folly House it was Mr Mulligan in the winners' enclosure after the 1997 Gold Cup. At King's Farm Stables it was Look Like Trouble who did the trick in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase and the same horse continued the trend, in the millennium Gold Cup, from Saxon House.

Chance moved in November to the Berkeley House yard which was Sheikh Mohammed's first purchase in the Valley Of The Racehorse, a fact which seems to make Flame Creek, the winner of a high-quality handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last Wednesday, a virtual certainty for the Champion Hurdle.

The seven-year-old beat Sonevafushi and Westender that day despite having to slosh through ground far from ideal. It was not textbook Champion Hurdle form, but then no one is sure quite just what that is in this confusing season.

"It's a wide open Champion," Chance said yesterday. "We're never ones to shirk a challenge and, dare I say it, this will be the most open year in a while – there's no Istabraq, no dominant horse at the top of the market.

"Everyone says that our fellow will find it hard to win off a rating of maybe around 140, but the only reason he's got that sort of mark is because he's so unexposed. The other day was only his fourth run over hurdles, his fifth race in all.

"He can improve plenty, certainly in terms of expertise. He's a very quick horse and I don't think he has to improve too much, especially if he gets good ground."

The next clue will come in either Haydock's Champion Hurdle Trial or the Tote Gold Trophy, depending on which race offers decent ground. If both are unsuitable, Flame Creek could go straight to Cheltenham.

Like most of Chance's purchases, Flame Creek was reared in the trainer's Irish homeland. "I bought him out of a field," Chance said, "untouched by human fingers. If they're going to get bad habits I like them to be mine."

Chance soon discovered he had bought well. "The first bit of work he ever did was with Flagship Uberalles and he came up the gallops in front of him," the trainer added. "We though there was something wrong with Flagship. And he's one of the very few horses who ever managed to keep tabs with Looks Like Trouble at home."

In the great Chance style, Flame Creek won his bumper, at Wincanton. He has also been backed at long odds, 66-1, by the trainer who used to keep his whole operation afloat in Ireland by punting the house. William Hill now offer just 20-1.

"He's always been a very good horse and he didn't get the opportunity to show himself off properly [last season]," Chance said. "But one thing he has done is improve considerably this year from last year.

"I'm not petrified of anything in the Champion Hurdle, but I do respect them, especially Westender because that was his first run the other day and he didn't like the ground either.

"Hors La Loi is getting a bit long in the tooth but is a spring horse, while Intersky Falcon and Rooster Booster have had some hard races. The idea is to have your horse right on the day and I'm a great believer that if you're going to the Festival you don't want to be running too much before Christmas."

CHAMPION HURDLE (Cheltenham, 11 March) William Hill: 9-2 Rooster Booster, 11-2 Intersky Falcon, 8-1 Davenport Milenium, 10-1 Rhinestone Cowboy, 12-1 Landing Light, Like A Butterfly, 14-1 Hors La Loi III, Scolardy, 20-1 Flame Creek, Galileo, Ilnamar, Marble Arch, Puntal, Santenay, Scottish Memories, 33-1 others.

'All-weather' racecourse hit by frost

The prospect of a whole day's racing programme being wiped out for the first time this winter loomed last night as the elements threatened the sand of Wolverhampton. Britain's three racecourses with an artificial racing surface have long since gave up the right to be called all-weather tracks, having been lost to rain, snow and high winds in the past. This time a combination of frost and rain is the danger.

Officials will inspect the track at 6.30am after sub-zero temperatures following rain caused concern to the clerk of the course, Fergus Cameron. "We have had a tremendous amount of rain in the last two weeks and there's a lot of moisture in the track," he said. "We got down to minus six last night, with the prospect of minus five tonight. Basically, we have had lumps form on the track."

Fontwell will be inspected at 7.30am because of the threat of frost, but Hereford's card has already fallen to the icy weather.