Upturn in United's form lifts Ferguson

Elimination from the Champions' League here tonight may signal the beginning of the end for Sir Alex Ferguson as manager of Manchester United. Alternatively, victory over Benfica, and the place in the knock-out stages it would ensure, could just be the start of something big.

The margin between failure and success - maybe even between a weakening of the hold he has had over United for 19 years and his continuing to lead them for seasons to come - promises to be wafer thin. Ten games in Group D have produced eight goals, prompting Ferguson to announce on arriving in Lisbon: "Whoever scores will win."

Missing out on the second phase for the first time in a decade would be financially problematic for United, who might even be denied the dubious consolation of a Uefa Cup spot. While the thoughts of the American owners, the Glazer family, remain unknown where that possibility is concerned, it was not in the brochure when they bought the club.

On the other hand, if United do finish in the top two, Ferguson believes that the two-leg nature of the ensuing rounds suits teams "trying to win", a category in which he has earned the right to place his team.

With the darker scenario in mind, a reporter yesterday pressed Ferguson, as he faced the media in the ballroom of one of the plusher hotels in the Portuguese capital, about the "speculation over your future" that would arise if United did not advance. "I'm not going to answer that," he bristled. "I'm here to talk about the game."

Later, asked if he felt the pressure on such occasions, Ferguson shrugged as if to say it was part of the job description before declaring: "I trust the players. They're a good bunch, honest and with excellent ability."

The Scot certainly did not have the air of a man whose team could be playing for his job in the Estadio da Luz. He started in relaxed, jovial mood, claiming to have seen "positive signs" in a run of four domestic wins. Then there was the return of Gary Neville and Ryan Giggs, plus an overdue goal for Paul Scholes.

"This match has come at a great time for us. Our confidence has improved, the form is good, and so is team spirit. But it won't be an easy game, because goals are at a premium in this group."

Switching to defiant mode, he argued that, morally, they already "deserve to go through". His logic was that all three of United's first-phase opponents played negatively at Old Trafford. "They had three and a half efforts on goal between them. Lille had one 45-yard shot, which I think was meant to waste time; Benfica scored from a free-kick; and Villarreal had a 30-yard shot. That demonstrates a fear of us."

United, for their part, will not be cowed by the wall of sound expected from an arena which, apart from 3,700 of their own followers, will be bulging with Benfiquistas. "Temperament is something you need. Over the years, playing at Anfield and Elland Road, or in the derby with City, you get used to the big crowds and the atmosphere."

Since a win for either side would guarantee their passage into the lucrative last 16, Benfica should, in theory, be going all out for victory. Ferguson, however, was unconvinced that Ronald Koeman would spring such a change at this late stage, especially with the Dutchman wrestling with injuries to as many as five first choices.

Sadly for the romantics, the United manager also seemed to counsel against expecting the kind of open contest which saw George Best inspire United to a 5-1 romp here in 1966. "I've seen it before when teams have to beat you but instead play with a lot of caution, just defending and hoping to get something from a set-piece."

Despite the presence of wingers like Cristiano Ronaldo and Giggs, who joined Neville in striving to prove his match-fitness in training, the onus for conjuring a goal or a flourish to honour the memory of Best's rampage is likely to fall to Wayne Rooney. Tonight's venue was productive for Rooney during Euro 2004, yet Ferguson, stressing the need for responsibility, warned that "we could have a magnificent performance from him and not get through".

Astonishingly, United have not won away in Europe for more than two years, and Ferguson was guilty of understatement when he described the sequence as "disappointing". Why had it happened? "The team is changing. We don't have as much experience as five years ago. But we haven't set out not to try to win games - it's not in our nature."

Benfica (4-2-3-1; probable): Quim; Alcides, Luisao, Anderson, Leo; Petit, Beto; Nelson, Nuno Assis, Geovanni; Nuno Gomes.

Manchester United (4-4-2; probable): Van der Sar; Neville, Ferdinand, Brown, Silvestre; Fletcher, Smith, Scholes, Ronaldo; Rooney, Van Nistelrooy.

Referee: K Vassaras (Greece).

The Lowdown on ... Benfica

* HOW THEY PLAY

Benfica employ an interchangeable 4-3-3 formation, similar to Jose Mourinho's system at Chelsea. The midfielders Petit, Beto and Manual Fernandes shield the centre of defence. However, they can become quite narrow, exposing the full-backs to United's wingers Ryan Giggs and Cristiano Ronaldo: a boyhood Benfica fan with a point to prove.

* SHORTCOMINGS

Benfica have three major injuries: Fabrizio Miccoli, Giorgios Karagounis and Simao Sambrosa. The loss of Simao is the most significant. He is the captain, playmaker, dead-ball specialist - he scored a stunning free-kick in the first game - and main outlet.

* HOW THEY ARE DOING Benfica lie sixth in their domestic league. Their last game was a 1-0 victory over Maritimo, but that was their first win in five games.

* BUT WATCH OUT FOR...

Nuno Gomes is good with head and feet and is the top scorer in the league with 10 goals in 13 games.