McCarthy keeps Quinn among shock troops

Mick McCarthy has two pieces of advice for football fans in Ireland considering a visit to the bank to finance a trip out to South Korea for the second round of the World Cup this weekend: make sure there's enough money in the account, and wait for the result of today's final group match against Saudi Arabia.

Not that the Republic's manager is concerned his team might not achieve the win they need, whether or not a two-goal margin is required. "I'm always confident," was his rallying cry yesterday. "I was even we drew Holland and Portugal in the qualifying group."

It is just that a fundamental principle of Ireland's success for many years has been to take nothing at all for granted. Andorra, Cyprus and Estonia were all granted the same respect as the Dutch and Portuguese; Saudi Arabia will not be taken lightly because of defeats by Germany and Cameroon, against whom the Irish have achieved well-deserved draws. McCarthy has told his players that the Saudis' 8-0 embarrassment against Germany was "a fluke" and that, when he watched them lose a little unluckily to Cameroon 1-0, they looked a good team.

Furthermore, his players know full well that if the positions were reversed, they would be determined to go home with a victory under their belt and a little pride salvaged.

If the memory of ghastly failures against countries such as Lithuania, under Jack Charlton, and Macedonia, under his successor, are now for most a long time gone, pessimists in green also point to under-achievement by various other Irish sporting teams just when they have been in a position to make a mark. It is not anything McCarthy feels obliged to dwell on: "We want to win the game and nobody's treating Saudi Arabia lightly. But we don't have to come in as outsiders and underdogs all the time. A different psychological approach is needed for this game.

"Because of the nature of our first game being against Cameroon and then having to face Germany, I don't think many people gave us a cat in hell's chance of getting anything out of them. But now people expect us just to turn up and we'll win, and that gives you a different problem. Saudi Arabia is not going to be easy. We'll have to play as well as we have in the last two games to win it."

What the Irish will not do is alter their tactical approach. After Germany scored with five headers against a defence that seemed to have a fear of heights, it might have looked an obvious ploy to put the lanky Niall Quinn on from the start. Were he the fit 23-year-old colt of Italia 90, that might have been a temptation. At 35 and with a dodgy back, McCarthy prefers to have him among the shock troops coming on later in then game, as he did to such graphic effect against the Germans last week.

"I know when I played I hated to get through a hard hour's football and then see a big guy warming up on the touchline," he said. "As a substitute, Niall's arrival lifts our team and hurts the opposition and that's the way I like it. To change things now might throw us more than it throws anyone else."

That applies to team selection as a whole, which is why an unchanged side is the most likely option. Jason McAteer, a more natural wide midfielder than Gary Kelly, claims to be fully fit, but he claimed that before the Cameroon game and then admitted that he lied to the manager about his knee injury. That will not easily be forgiven and after being left out against Germany ­ to his great displeasure ­ the Sunderland man can expect to be sitting in the dug-out again today.

Mark Kinsella and Matt Holland will again be entrusted to control the central areas, where the highly capable Nawaf Al Temyat must be subdued, while Robbie Keane and Damien Duff are charged with seeking out the goals that Ireland need. If the Cameroon-Germany match provides a decisive result, the losers will go out and the Republic will require only a one-goal victory; a draw in Shizuoka and they must win by two. Remarkably, that is something the country has never before achieved in 14 matches at major tournaments, for Charlton's teams, weak in attack, often aimed to steal one goal and hang on to it.

As Alan Kelly, his reserve goalkeeper in 1994, said yesterday: "In America things were always going to be tight and we were very concerned about the heat. It was a totally different way of playing. We're making a lot more chances now and the strikers have looked extremely sharp in training. The football we've played has looked exceptional at times and that's the difference in eight years."

Keane confirmed that his dramatically late equaliser against Germany had put him in good heart and if there is a player who could do with a goal now it is Duff. Despite looking quick, lively on the ball and potentially threatening, he still has only one international goal to his name in 28 games, which came last August on his first appearance as a striker.

No matter who scores it, an early goal to settle the side down ­ and possibly force some Saudi heads down ­ would be invaluable today. The longer Ireland go without one, the greater the threat of an altogether different scenario: one in which Cameroon draw 1-1, Ireland sneak in 1-0 and with identical records, lots have to be drawn to separate them. Then the luck of the Irish really would be required.

HOW REPUBLIC OF IRELAND CAN QUALIFY

The Republic of Ireland need to beat Saudi Arabia by two clear goals to guarantee their progress into the second round.

Ireland will go through with a one-goal win if the game between Germany and Cameroon has a winner; or if that game ends in a draw and they score more goals than Cameroon (i.e. Cameroon draw 1-1 and Ireland win 2-1).

If Ireland win by one goal and only match Cameroon's scoring, lots will be drawn.