Pakistan are divided and out of form - so watch them go

The great enigmas are at a low ebb. But, argues Stephen Fay, they can still produce the thrills

Sunday 02 February 2003 01:00 GMT
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Pakistan's recent record is pathetic. Out in an early round of the Champions' Trophy; humiliated by Australia in Sharjah, and humbled in South Africa in Tests and one-day internationals. They haven't got a prayer, surely. But that is not how they see it. They will be disappointed if they do not reach the semi-finals.

Before the team imploded in the autumn and winter they had even looked like a good outside bet for the Cup. In June, they had played a three-match ODI series in Australia; Wasim Akram took 3 for 18 in the second game and Shoaib Akhtar 5 for 25 in the third as Australia were bowled out for 167 and 165 and Pakistan won the series 2–1.

When they were playing badly recently, the team were undergoing one of their regular bouts of a power struggle that is allowed to fester in Pakistani cricket. Wasim is at the heart of it. He believes that he and not his old enemy Waqar Younis should captain the side. He said as much in a newspaper interview in Cape Town during the South African tour. But these power struggles are not resolved by the superior performances of one side over the other. In Pakistan the more common tactic is to refuse to play at all, and Wasim was missing for vital matches in South Africa. The injuries he cited were widely understood to be diplomatic.

Apparently, the Pakistani general, Tauqir Zia, who runs the Cricket Board, was tempted. After all, Waqar was not producing the results. But Zia may have detected premature triumphalism in the Wasim camp because he decided to stick with Waqar. Since then Waqar has issued a number of statements which ignore form and turn a pig's ear into a silk purse.

As the team left Lahore on 24 January Waqar announced to a crowd of 20,000 that they would beat Australia in their first match on 11 February. What he remembered from South Africa earlier in January was not that Pakistan lost four ODIs but that the one they won was by a South African record margin of 182 runs.

Wasim had his revenge on Waqar in 1999 by not picking him. He might have argued that he did not need to. Until Pakistan's utter collapse in the Lord's final they could do without him. But they will need a full house in form in South Africa: Wasim, Waqar, and Shoaib Akhtar, who is either the fastest or second-fastest bowler in the world. When he bowls, that is. After Shoaib announced that he was returning home to recover fitness in December, he was to be seen in Durban where the emphasis was on dancing and prancing.

The Pakistani pacemen's stats are intimidating: Wasim has 490 ODI wickets at 23.69; Waqar is not far behind with 409 at 23.81 and Shoaib has 122 at 21.00. There are other stats that may count, of course, like Wasim's age (36) and Waqar's (31, going on 33). But when this explosive trio have had their go, there is Saqlain Mushtaq (284 wickets at 21.64), and the all-rounders. Permute one from Abdul Razzaq (153 at 25.67) or Shahid Afridi, who is principally a batsman but has taken 128 ODI wickets at 38.57. (To put these records in perspective, no England bowler has taken 60 wickets in ODIs.) Add up the bowling averages and it is easy to see why Pakistan lie third in the ICC one-day championship.

You may infer, rightly, that when they lose, the batting is the weak link. They have three fine performers: Saeed Anwar, bearded now and out of practice, Inzamam-ul-Haq, and Yousuf Youhana, and of these stalwarts only Yousuf averages more than 40. The case for Shahid's inclusion is that he has scored 3,845 runs in ODIs at a strike-rate of 101.60.

The stats are generally persuasive; the temperament remains suspect. Seasoned observers are still at a loss to explain the humiliation Australia were allowed to inflict by eight wickets in the 1999 final – unless they think the unthinkable. And team unity was stronger in 1999. It will have to be revived very fast in South Africa, though World Cups are the perfect atmosphere for healing rifts as well as creating them.

Temperament will be most fiercely tested against India on 1 March. To qualify Pakistan really ought to beat two from Australia, England (22 February) or India, especially as they are quite capable of losing to Zimbabwe in the final Pool A match at Bulawayo on 4 March.

Can they do it? Of course they can. Will they do it? Probably. And if they don't? Who will be surprised? An article on the Pakistan Cricket Board's web-site concludes: "The nation shall do the praying, worrying and well-wishing but, boys, it's now up to you!" That's the promise and the problem.

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