Hussain defined by his call

The Ashes: Whole tour, and the captain's future, will be dogged by that toss

After four days it is still a decision that nobody can make head or tail of. Nasser Hussain has long been renowned as a useless tosser in captaincy terms, as 14 wins from 37 flips of the coin testify. Many observers now suspect that is far too many for comfort. The England captain may not be fit to be let loose in the company of small change.

As this Ashes series approached, it was pretty clear that the tourists had one chance of escaping from Brisbane still on level terms. They had to win the toss on the first morning, post a big total, bat long enough to ensure that the Australians had little room for manoeuvre, and see how they liked being put under pressure for once.

The first task alone was difficult. There was not only Hussain's lousy tossing record to consider, but also that of all England captains at Brisbane. Ten in succession had called wrongly to make a mockery of the statistical fact that the odds are evens every time captains engage in the ritual.

But Hussain at least recognised what was at stake. He had spoken of it before departing: the need to score 500 no matter how long it took. The idea, he said, was to get a score to make the opposition struggle. The obverse to that logic, of course, is that if the opposition do get a score, then you struggle.

Hussain called correctly for the 15th time in his 38th match as leader, England's 800th Test match in all. And then he did what nobody can have expected. On behalf of his side, and presumably after discussions with the inner cabal, Hussain took an outrageous gamble.

It has been alleged in many quarters that it was a defensive move, exhibiting signs of fear at exposing England's batting order to Australia's formidable bowling attack. It was not. Hussain knew full well that Australia would come at England and keep on coming at them; he wanted to demonstrate that England could withstand the onslaught.

Asking Australia to bat was like inviting a 7ft tall mugger (well, 6ft 2in in Matthew Hayden's case) to hit you over the head with a club because you think you have what it takes to turn the tables. Steve Waugh has made a career of giving little away in his face, but at that point his lifelong impersonation of Buster Keaton was probably under as much threat as his place in the Australian side.

There was not only the question of the combination of bravura and braggadocio which was at the heart of the decision. It must also have been informed by a reading of the pitch, an art which has thus been brought further into disrepute. Moisture, what moisture? Make no mistake, England were as magnificent on the second day of the match as Australia were abject, but by then most of the damage had been done.

The decision will haunt the rest of the tour and may come, who knows, to have an unfair bearing on the judgement of Hussain's entire captaincy. It is possible that his call, his decision and its outcome will be a watershed. This is still his team, but his explanation for doing as he did will now shape their progress.

Whatever he was thinking, whatever his supposed strategy was, Hussain immediately exposed England to batting last against the best leg-spinner who ever lived. If there is one truism of pitches it is that they wear and that spinners, not least when they are Shane Warne, take advantage of that.

In Hussain's defence, it has been pointed out that it has become quite the fashion at the Gabba to insert the opposition. So it has. The side winning the toss had fielded in five of the last six matches and twice they had won the match. However, it was Australia who did it on both occasions.

If Hussain wants history, he can have it. The last touring team to win at Brisbane after fielding were New Zealand in 1985, when they were aided by cloud cover, humidity, genuine moisture in the pitch and one Richard Hadlee, who took 15 wickets in the match.

Andrew Caddick has been a fine bowler for England, but the only things that he has in common with Hadlee are premature greyness and being born in New Zealand. If Hussain thought otherwise, he was wrong.

There is more. In their 800 Tests England have won the toss and fielded on 64 occasions, winning on only 17 of them. Against Australia they have fielded 21 times after the coin ended up going their way, but only three times has the match done likewise.

The answer seems to be clear. Unless there is cloud, humidity, Hadlee, McGrath or Warne about, then you have to bat.

Captains always say that the toss does not really matter in the long run. Indeed, history shows that sides losing the toss go on to win the match almost as often as the sides winning it. But those figures also reveal why there is always hell to pay if you choose to field. It goes against all the tenets of cricket. It is, it always has been, and it always will be, a batsman's game.

If Hussain has used any phrase more than "and that kind of stuff" – a vernacular favourite of his – during his tenure, it is "runs on the board". Get them and you can, at least partially, control your own destiny.

To have a prayer of making a fist of this series, England had to go ahead early or keep it all square. Where they go from here is, specifically, Adelaide for the Second Test starting on 21 November, but more generally, Hussain's decision at the Gabba could mean that it is nowhere.

This tour was always going to be the severest test of Hussain's England. It has now also become the sternest examination of the man himself. Somehow, he has to make his team competitive while being fully aware that they all know that he let them in for it.

The toss might not matter for much. But it may already have predetermined this 62nd Ashes series. England are already desperately trying to cling on to Australia's tails.