Cricket World Cup 2015: Australia set to push back boundary

Even with the ropes moved to limit sixes, the host nation are firm favourites to win 50-over global showpiece

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The 11th World Cup will almost certainly be similar in one respect to its 10 predecessors: England will not be the winners. If that seems unduly dismissive before a ball has been bowled, it is also the harsh reality.

There are too many other teams with more power, confidence and sheer chutzpah. There is no reason why England should not spring a surprise or two along the way (they are also capable of having a surprise sprung on them), but to see off the rest over the course of six long weeks looks well beyond them.

Australia, whose swagger is fully restored, will begin as favourites, and the vague theory that they may have peaked too soon does not have much going for it. If South Africa have emerged as enviably strong contenders with similar depth, it will be fascinating, as always, to see if they find a new way to muck it up.

The tournament, which begins next Saturday, is crucial for the future wellbeing of the 50-over format. At 44 days, it will last a day longer than the last competition, 14 fewer than the one before that in the West Indies and 29 more than the magnificent inaugural competition of fond memory, in 1975. In short, it’s too long.

However, it has a chance to be the most vivid and engaging. The World Cup in India four years ago lived up to expectations, partly because there was some bold cricket (India and England tying a match in which both made 337), partly because there were some shocks (Ireland turning over England) but mostly because India won in front of their own fans.

Australia may well do likewise this time but, with respect to Australian nationhood, nothing will match the unadulterated joy intermingled with relief that swept through India that night in early April four years ago.

For several years 50-over cricket has been threatened by its brasher cousin, Twenty20. It is not that T20 takes less time and can pack into it more than a regulation number of thrills. Outside the World Cup the senior limited-overs game often lacks context: another bilateral series of three, five or seven matches, another place higher or lower in the ICC rankings table. So what?

To try to ensure its survival, the International Cricket Council have taken to perpetual tweaking of the regulations. In their present manifestation, evolved since the last World Cup, they now embrace two new balls from the start of each innings, one from each end, and a maximum of 35 overs with four fielders outside the 30-yard circle.

Added to the increased power of the batsmen, and of their bats, and the gradual reduction in the size of boundaries, this has led to increased totals. This may be bad news for the bowler but in general it is good news for the game. Batsmen are playing jazzier shots and bowlers, as ever, are having to come up with different ways of countering them.

The average innings-score has gone up markedly. Take Australia as an example. Between 1971 and November 2012, when the crucial fielding change was bought in, their average score when batting first in ODIs was 246. This has now risen to 268. England, too, have gone up, from 231 to 240, which shows that not only have Australia always tended to score more runs but, more significantly, they have adapted more quickly.

If there are likely to be higher totals, the ICC are understandably fearful of too much of a run-fest and are insisting on boundaries being pushed as far out as possible. That may prevent the record for World Cup sixes being broken. In the West Indies eight years ago 373 sixes, or 7.31 a match, were struck, but that was reduced to 268, or 5.27 a match, in India, where the pitches were different.

There is reason for optimism. Batsmen brought up on T20 have become much more fearless and innovative. Watch out in the next few weeks for intelligent but regular use of the short ball – in the absence of much mystery spin anywhere, pace will count.

There will also be more activity in the middle overs of innings. It had tended to become a period of consolidation for both the batting and fielding sides, but the scoring of runs and the taking of wickets may now assume a greater significance.

The game in general and the tournament in particular need the lesser nations to compete effectively. There has been too little progress in that regard in the 40 years since the first World Cup.

What the players have to bring to the middle in the next few weeks is a sense of fun. Playing hard does not mean snarling. The champions are likely to come from Australia, South Africa or the fast-developing New Zealand. The fact that Australia have won four times compared to a combined total of zero for the others gives them an edge. A fifth victory is probable.