Cricket: World Cup - Pakistan can flourish by applying flair

As the World Cup awaits the start of the second stage, the big guns are in ominous form. By Derek Pringle

NOW THAT the fur, feathers and, in England's case, the tears have settled, it appears that the laws of the jungle have triumphed and, give or take the odd slow starter and run-rate victim, the strong have largely triumphed over the weak. This is how it should be in sport, despite what Labour's Minister of Culture and Sport, Chris Smith, may say to the contrary.

Friday sees the start of the Super Six stage of the carnival, and the search for four semi- finalists. Played exclusively at Test match venues, the top three from Group A will take on those from Group B. On this occasion, Darwin's theory of natural selection is likely to be complicated by the varying number of points sides have brought with them from beating the other two qualifiers in their group.

For example, although Zimbabwe finished third, they take a maximum four points through with them after beating India and South Africa, the two teams above them in Group A. India, on the other hand, take none, while South Africa take two. If it sounds complicated, think of it as a handicap race that helps rather than hinders those in form.

If it appears to give some teams a buffer, there is little, if any, room for complacency. Indeed, unless some overdue sunshine does not bake the pitches into more batsman-friendly surfaces soon, the immediate future of some big names like India and Australia - neither with any points to their name - could hang literally on the toss of a coin. It is a predicament that turns the opening Super Six match between them into virtually a straight knock-out. Certainly the team that loses at The Oval on Friday will find it almost impossible to reach the last four.

India's next match against Pakistan is potentially even more explosive - and not just because India's Tendulkar, Dravid and Ganguly, with 903 tournament runs between them, take on the Pakistani fast men. Following the two countries' ongoing skirmish over disputed territory in Kashmir, security at Old Trafford will be intensified.

To date, thankfully, crowds have been boisterous but generally well behaved. Apart from pitch invasions at close of play - a ritual repeatedly and hysterically condemned by the Aussies - fewer than 100 people have been evicted for disorderly conduct from 30 matches.

Despite England's premature exit, World Cup organisers claim that all tickets for the remaining matches have been sold. Clearly, the host's absence from their own bash is not going to prevent most people from having a good time.

So far, allowing for both sides' last-minute blips against lesser forces, the most impressive cricket has been played by Pakistan and South Africa, who are now the joint favourites to lift the trophy at Lord's on 20 June.

The bookies' faith is hardly surprising, and both sides have a symmetry that combines batting depth, bowling firepower and a glut of skilful all- rounders. It is interesting to note, though, that neither side is well represented in the top 10 run-scorers and wicket-takers. In fact, only Inzamam-ul-Haq makes it into the first list, while only Allan Donald and Lance Klusener get into the second.

However, they are the only sides to have got the old ball to produce reverse swing on a regular basis. If achieved legally, it is a skill that can stem the flow of runs at the death - something that has become a feature of this World Cup due to the continuing hardness of the white Duke ball.

Although the favourites both have the resources to persist with attacking options, Hansie Cronje's natural instincts are to defend. Pakistan's captain, Wasim Akram, knows no such constraints, and providing he can keep the excitable younger elements such as Shoaib Akhtar simmering rather than boiling, they look certainties for a berth in the semi-finals.

According to some Sunday newspapers, Shoaib was caught on camera at Headingley allegedly giving the ball some illegal Aladdin's lamp treatment. With match-fixing allegations still hanging over some of their senior players' heads, controversy is the last thing Pakistan need, and although ball tampering is something of a speeding offence when it comes to misdemeanours, Wasim would do well to ensure his foot-soldiers stick to spit and polish in future.

South Africa have a clear edge in the field and are chillingly efficient in all they do, but Pakistan's flair and knack of finding heroes from nowhere, such as Abdul Razzaq and Yousuf Youhana, make them difficult to make plans against - and South Africa love a plan. They also have some class spinners to call on, something that Cronje's team could have done with against Zimbabwe at Chelmsford. Providing their recent losses do not become a habit, the pair's Super six meeting at Trent Bridge on Saturday could well be a preview of the final itself.

As a result of choosing their group victims carefully, Zimbabwe could find themselves in the fortuitous position of being able to reach the final by winning just two matches. By beginning the Super Sixes with four points in the bag, they might be able to get through to the last four without winning a game; a situation that would arise should South Africa and India happen to finish level with them on points. A more likely scenario for Zimbabwe, though, is that everything will have to go for them if they are to upset the 20-1 odds currently being quoted.

Incredibly, considering that pre-tournament publicity heralded them as perhaps the men of the World Cup, Messrs Duckworth and Lewis have been conspicuously absent. If May has been unusually dry, sod's law is bound to turn June into a month for galoshes and calculators. Even if it does not, run rate could still prove a decisive factor and those who ignore it, as England did, do so at their own peril.

Providing they can get their early batting in the runs, the New Zealanders, who have the tournament's leading wicket-taker in Geoff Allott, would undoubtedly prefer the going to stay soft. Even so, they have been disappointing following their fine win over Australia, who have at last woken up with a vengeance.

Like India, Steve Waugh's men have no room for manouevre, and will probably have to win all of their next three matches simply to stand a chance of making the semi-finals. Should they do so, the momentum would be such that few would bet against them repeating their 1987 triumph, a victory that acted as a catalyst to one of the greatest periods in their cricketing history.