Turkey hails rout of Kurdish foes

Army may outstay its welcome in northern Iraq, writes Christopher de Bellaigue in Ankara

As the Turkish offensive against Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq enters its 11th day, the generals who planned it are suggesting that modern Turkey's most extensive cross-border operation may turn into its longest.

The Turks have announced that large areas of northern Iraq are now clear of guerrillas from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), and that the main rebel camps have been destroyed. Now, some are saying it may be several months before their men leave the area.

They are playing up the success of the operation. The Turks say they have killed 1,750 guerrillas, more than double the number reported killed during the last comparable cross- border operation, in 1995. Important PKK camps at Atrus and Zap, lying 55km and 25km inside Iraqi territory, have been taken, and hundreds of tons of food and ammunition seized. If you believe the Turkish General Staff, this is one of the most successful operations in recent warfare, and only 18 Turkish soldiers have been killed.

The trouble is that few do believe this, although it would not be politic for Turkish newspapers, which faithfully reproduce the military's figures, to admit it. Non-military sources in Diyarbakir, the Turkish town which the PKK wishes to become capital of independent Kurdistan, estimate PKK dead at no more than 300. Likewise, the Turkish casualty figures are considered "miraculous". More scientific enumeration is difficult; journalists, whose shocking photographs of the 1995 operation helped to swing international opinion away from the Turks, were prevented from crossing the border for the first week of the operation.

Hostile international opinion is one reason why European diplomats in Ankara are not inclined to believe talk that the operation will last until the autumn. Should the Turks remain in northern Iraq much longer than the 45 days they stayed in 1995, allies such as the Americans, who try to be supportive of such offensives, would get twitchy. So might Iraq, which despite being barred from crossing the 36th parallel into northern Iraq, has protested loudly. For the moment, however, the Turks are reassuring foreigners that the military's rhetoric has little foundation. Last Thursday's protest by Kurds inside the UN's European headquarters in Geneva was more noisy than well-attended.

One reason for this is that some Iraqi Kurdish leaders are happy for the Turks to intervene. Among them are Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), one of the two factions jostling for control of the region. Mr Barzani is happy to take over the border areas that have been "liberated" by the Turks from the PKK. The KDP, which is providing military and logistic support for the Turks, claims that the PKK clears villages whose inhabitants support Mr Barzani and press-gangs youths into fighting the Turks.

While the KDP takes possession of land along the border, PKK guerrillas, who number no more than 4,000 in the region, appear to be heading east. Some have sought refuge in areas controlled by the KDP rival in the region, the PUK. Others may go further and enter Iran, which Turkey has often accused of harbouring PKK militants. Once across the border they will be untouchable. Iran says Turkish incursions into Iran, even in "hot pursuit" of PKK guerrillas, will meet with force.

In the long run, the Turks want to prevent the PKK from returning to their old camps in northern Iraq. But KDP support for Turkish presence in the region is not open-ended. Nor is the patience of the local population, which feels no more sympathy for the Turks than for the often thuggish PKK.

Turkey's objective is not to keep troops in northern Iraq at prohibitive expense but to broker a peace between the KDP and the PUK. This peace, the Turks hope, would produce the political stability which is necessary if the PKK is to be denied a permanent home.

Turkey's shorter-term objective is more modest. It is to cripple the PKK, so that the organisation is unable to launch attacks in late summer and autumn.

If the Turks can smash the PKK's logistics, delay the return of the guerrillas to northern Iraq and bolster their own morale with imaginative casualty figures, then their job will have been well done.