UN General Assembly: World leaders at the crossroads

The heavyweights gathering in New York this week are hoping a newly engaged US will mean progress on a range of overlapping issues

CLIMATE CHANGE

What's at stake? World leaders will spend today trying to reach a deal on curbing global carbon emissions. Barack Obama and China's Hu Jintao will both speak while Gordon Brown will chair a working group on the financial side of a treaty that will see subsidies for poorer countries to help them develop low-emission technologies. Progress today and at the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh later this week will be key to signing a son-of-Kyoto treaty in Copenhagen in December.

What is everyone looking for? For the UN, few things are as important in the coming months as finalising a new treaty on climate control by the December deadline in Copenhagen. This week in New York is all about reinvigorating political will for the package as the timetable for negotiations seem to have been slipping lately. Don't expect anything specific to be signed. But experts will be reading between the lines of every country's contributions to see if they are ready to play or not.

Will it work? Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, wants the heads of government and heads of state of more than 100 countries to say how committed they are to tackling emissions. It is the UN, after all, that sees much of the impact of global warming first hand – floods in Asia, droughts in Africa as well as rising oceans. We won't know if today's events will have had any real impact until negotiators gather in Copenhagen.

Who are the awkward squad? The US could wreck the whole Copenhagen schedule because the US Senate is showing little inclination to pass a bill approving the kind of cap-and-trade system that will be necessary actually to reduce emissions in the US. However, developing countries will come to New York arguing they should be spared the burden and have the most to lose by emission limits. The kind of lead China decides to take will be key. Watch President Hu Jintao carefully.

MIDDLE EAST/IRAN

What's at stake? For weeks, Barack Obama has been secretly hoping to use the UN stage to sit down with Israel and the Palestinian Authority and announce the resumption of direct negotiations on achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East. Call it a mini-summit if you will or just a posh photo-opportunity, but Mr Obama will indeed broker a "three-way" with President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (pictured below) on the fringes of the UN.

What is everyone looking for? President Obama believes settling the acrimony between the two sides holds the key to a type of "grand bargain" in the Middle East taking in Iran's nuclear ambitions, sorting out Afghanistan and Pakistan, and repairing relations between the West and the wider Muslim world. Israel would like a bargain whereby it meets some Palestinian demands in return for the US reining in Iran with the imposition of "crippling" sanctions, but has so far given not an inch.

Will it work? The man doing most of the heavy lifting has been Obama's Mid-East envoy George Mitchell. Best anyone can tell from over a week of shuttle diplomacy is that he did not get very far. It's possible that one or both of the parties were waiting for this occasion to show the kinds of gestures that will be needed to get meaningful negotiations started again but there seems little sign of it. Last night the White House said it had "no grand expectations".

Who are the awkward squad? Netanyahu has resolutely refused to heed calls by Washington for a freeze in settlement construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Even last night, his advisers were saying he has no intention of relenting in the face of pressure from the Palestinians and from Mr Obama. Israel may also be holding out for progress on Iran. If not, it has hinted, it may take action of its own: in other words, a military strike.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

What's at stake? In Prague this spring, Mr Obama called for the world to move quickly towards the elimination of all nuclear weapons. He also spoke of the need to prevent further proliferation. The two issues are so important to the US that Obama will be chairing a very rare heads of government-level Security Council summit on Thursday. This is all soul-stirring stuff, but much more immediate is the shadow cast by Iran which is still refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment.

What is everyone looking for? On Thursday the heads of government, including Obama and Brown, will adopt a resolution underscoring the importance of maintaining a standstill in the number of nuclear nations in the world – the existing Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is up for renegotiation next year – and keeping nuclear materials out of the hands of terrorists. On everyone's minds will be the apparent progress made towards joining the nuclear club by Iran and North Korea.

Will it work? There is almost no doubt that the resolution, already drafted, will be adopted by the Security Council. It won't change much but it may set a new political tone. It helps that Obama has set the stage by already engaging in talks with Russia about cuts in both their nuclear arsenals. The shelving of the US missile shield will have been helpful too. But on the Iran front, can we expect a new willingness from Russia to punish Iran if it doesn't bend soon to UN demands?

Who are the awkward squad? Israel is raising the stakes on the Iran dossier. Even yesterday its army chief said that all options "remain on the table" regarding Iran, widely taken to mean that Israel would be ready to launch military strikes if it feels that no progress has been made towards ending Iran's rush towards nuclear status. Israel is not involved in six-nation talks that will resume with Iran on 1 October, but it is a big elephant in the room. And don't forget North Korea.

UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD

What's at stake? Nikita Krushchev banged a shoe on the podium at the 1960 General Assembly and last year an Iraqi journalist threw a shoe at George Bush. No such footwear tantrums are expected this week. On his first visit to a General Assembly, Barack Obama is expected to get a standing ovation when he speaks tomorrow. There is tangible relief in New York that the UN's biggest contributor and dominant power is coming in from the cold.

What is everyone looking for? The expectation in New York is that Mr Obama will tomorrow confirm that on multilateralism he and George Bush could hardly be more different. He will call for a new era of partnership between the US and the rest of the world. But he will also talk about the need for shared responsibilities. Look for lines about America being willing to lead the world again, but expecting the world to contribute more. Any spare troops for Afghanistan, anyone? Please?

Will it work? You can be sure that Obama's charm will work magic on most of the delegations. Everyone will be trying to shake his hand. But there are limits to what he can achieve. On climate change, Obama is handcuffed by his own party's reluctance to pass cap-and-trade legislation in the Senate. Meanwhile, critics of his new open-arm approach to diplomacy are straining to discredit him, pointing to the absence of progress on Iran, North Korea and the Middle East.

Who are the awkward squad? Obama knows his embrace of the UN will be a gift to his conservative critics. The jokes at his expense promise to be brutal. And he will be frustrated by a few people inside the UN building too. If only Netanyahu would announce an end to illegal settlements in the Occupied Territories. If only Ahmadinejad would stop saying the Holocaust never happened. If only ... but they won't.