President's return threatens to plunge Yemen into civil war

Saleh's arrival was greeted with jubilation and rage. Patrick Cockburn reports

(AFP/ GETTY IMAGES)

President Ali Abdullah Saleh unexpectedly returned to Yemen yesterday, a move likely to further divide his country and shift it towards all-out civil war.

Mr Saleh made no mention in his initial statement of any intention of resigning as President, a role he has held for 33 years. But he did call for a truce and a return to negotiations, saying the solution to the eight-month crisis "is not in the barrels of guns and cannon, but in dialogue".

Mr Saleh had been receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia for almost four months after he was almost killed in an assassination attempt on 3 June, when a bomb or rocket blast left him with burns all over his body. It had been expected that the Saudi government would not let him go back to Yemen unless he promised to hand over power, but at dawn yesterday he returned to the capital, Sanaa, in a private plane.

Mr Saleh's opponents and supporters in the capital fired their weapons into the air in rage or celebration as news that he was back in the country was suddenly and dramatically announced on Yemen TV. The two sides, which control different parts of the city and the country, held parallel demonstrations. Supporters chanted: "We love you Ali," while protesters shouted: "Prosecute the killer." The embattled leader is to give a further speech on Sunday spelling out his intentions.

If Mr Saleh does not start to transfer power to his opponents, ranging from pro-democracy demonstrators in the streets to senior tribal and military leaders, the crisis in Yemen is likely to worsen rapidly. The long stand-off has already seen Yemen's traditionally weak central state disintegrate further. Food and petrol prices have soared. Nine out of 23 million Yemenis are not getting enough to eat, and the number at risk of starvation is increasing according to the UN.

Mr Saleh's call for a ceasefire and negotiations will be seen as hypocritical by protesters as his forces have been responsible for most of the shooting. The victims include about 100 people killed by snipers and shelling in the past week. Most of these died after being hit while they were demonstrating. Doctors in hospitals treating the wounded said many of them had suffered head wounds, indicating that the pro-regime troops were shooting to kill. Mr Saleh took part in lengthy negotiations before the assassination attempt against him, but balked at the last minute from signing any agreement that would require him to step down.

The collapse of the central state and the economy has led UN officials to compare the situation in Yemen to developments in Somalia, which has been left in a permanent state of war in which no faction has been able to score a decisive victory. Even before the crisis Yemen was the Arab world's poorest country with one third of the labour force unemployed, oil revenues falling and water in short supply. Yemen has never recovered economically from the expulsion of one million Yemeni workers from Saudi Arabia in 1990/91 because of Yemen's failure to denounce Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

Mr Saleh showed during almost four months out of Yemen that he does not have to be personally present to hold power and that he can do so through members of his family. His son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, previously designated as the next President, commands the well-trained Republican Guard units.

But, although the opposition has not been able to dislodge Mr Saleh, he probably does not have the strength to defeat them. Part of Sanaa is held by the tribal militiamen of the powerful Ahmar family and by troops of the First Armoured Division, led by General Ali Mohsen. The powerful military figure defected to the opposition in March, after pro-regime gunmen, shooting from rooftops, killed 52 protesters.

The circumstances of Mr Saleh's return remain a mystery as it was expected that Saudi Arabia, backed by the US, would prevent him going back unless he began to transfer power. Given his record of reaching agreements only to refuse to sign them at the last moment, the only type of peace deal likely to succeed is one in which he steps down early in the process.

In the past Mr Saleh has been skilful in manipulating the US by putting himself forward as America's ally against "terrorism" and, in particular, against a militant group called al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQIP), based in Yemen. This group is only about 300-strong according to Yemeni officials, but the US has made it a priority to pursue it and kill its leaders. The regime in Sanaa is suspected of withdrawing its troops to allow an AQIP affiliate to briefly capture Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province in the far south, so as to increase America's sense of unease about what would happen if Mr Saleh was no longer president. Saudi Arabia will want to be sure that, if Mr Saleh goes, he will be replaced by leaders it can easily influence.

All The President's Men

Ahmed Ali Saleh

The son of the President had previously been seen as the heir apparent. However, his father publicly promised, in one of the concessions he was forced to make as the uprising took hold, that he would not inherit the leadership. Ahmed Ali Saleh commands the well-trained Republican Guard units.

Ali Saleh al-Ahmar

The President's half-brother was replaced by Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh as head of the Republican Guard. He later served as the military attaché to the embassy in Washington DC.

Yahya Saleh

The President's eldest nephew commands the country's central security forces and anti-terrorism units. His troops were accused of firing machine guns at demonstrators on Sunday in the worst outbreak of violence for months.