No-fly zones hold key to successful assault on Baghdad

The latest attack on Iraq by United States and British warplanes highlights a little publicised 12-year air campaign, which has great significance for a future Gulf war.

Despite the hype, the raid on the Iraqi airfield was not a precursor to an imminent attack. The number of planes taking part in the operation was about 50 rather than the 100 reported, and only a dozen of them attacked the targets.

Nor was the raid particularly large in terms of others in the recent past. But that in itself shows how America and Britain have near-total air superiority over Saddam Hussein, giving allied commanders enormous leverage in planning the coming campaign.

The American and British operations are in the two "no-fly zones" in the north and south of Iraq. The southern one was established at the end of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 with the aim of preventing Iraq from threatening Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and protecting Shia dissidents in the area. The next year a similar zone was set up in the north to shield the Kurdish population in their semi-autonomous region.

Iraq has always refused to accept the restrictions on its airspace, but, faced with overwhelming air power, can do little to counter it. Indeed, the only time since the end of the Gulf War that President Saddam has been able to use his air power for combat was when the Americans and British allowed helicopter-borne Republican Guards to smash uprisings in the north and south.

The bitter memories of the failed rebellions are fresh for Iraqi opposition groups and led to Kurdish leaders pointing out recently the dangers of depending on Western promises of aid if they take up arms once again against Baghdad.

American and British warplanes have conducted regular missions against Iraqi positions in the zones, the northern ones run from the Turkish base at Incirlik, and the southern ones from Bahrain.

Strikes have also taken place outside the no-fly zone. America and Britain bombed the vicinity of Baghdad in December 1998 after United Nations weapons inspectors were withdrawn from Iraq.

Apart from that, the air strikes have tended to ebb and flow, as have Iraqi anti-aircraft threats. US and British warplanes attacked 102 times in 1999, 48 in 2000, 11 in 2001 and 35 times this year. The incidences of Iraqi missile and anti-aircraft fire, according to the Pentagon, numbered 143 in 1999, 145 in 2000, 97 in 2001, and 36 so far this year.

In that time, the Iraqis say, American and British planes have killed 1,483 civilians and injured about 1,400. These figures are disputed by Washington and London.

When Iraq was on the back burner a few years ago, some American and British commanders recommended ending the no-fly zones patrols, which cost almost $1bn (£640m) a year. But now, with President Saddam again a target, the sorties are likely to increase.

The domination of the skies not only ensures that Iraqi planes stay on the ground, but that Baghdad does not risk putting large numbers of troops or armour in the border regions. It has also meant that the Iraqis have virtually ceased using their radar tracking systems, knowing they are likely to be destroyed by the allies radar-seeking missiles.

All this gives the American and British military planners extra "battle space" – a relatively uncontested area where allied land and air power can be based.

Before that happens, however, the remaining Iraqi air defences will have to be destroyed, as well as stocks of Scud B missiles, and their derivatives. "Clear skies" will mean the final thrust to Baghdad can begin.

The Iraqis have never shot down an allied warplane patrolling the no-fly zone. The Americans claim Iraq has been moving the mobile Sam missiles into the areas in the past few months.

Chinese engineers and technicians are believed to have been involved in repairing some of the shattered Iraqi air defences over the past few years. American officials have also obtained details of previous work by Serbian engineers. The information was handed over by Belgrade after the demise of President Slobodan Milosevic.

In the past month, the United States air force has been flying its unmanned Global Hawk and Predator planes over the no-fly zones in what are being seen as rehearsals for a possible conflict.