An Israeli assault on Gaza’s Rafah will send shockwaves that could hit far closer to home

Bel Trew writes that in recent conversations with officials, experts and diplomats across the Middle East, there is one common warning: if the Rafah offensive goes ahead during Ramadan and no truce is negotiated soon, the world will be on the brink of a much wider war

The aftermath of an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, southern Gaza (Reuters)

The war in Gaza, layered over the destabilising shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has pushed the world to the very brink. The volatility of the Middle East and Red Sea region and the subsequent rising anger at the West are reaching levels possibly not seen since the lead-up to 9/11.

A devastating Israeli ground offensive on Rafah in southern Gaza, which is the last refuge for civilians in the besieged strip, would likely trigger a humanitarian crisis and a death toll of unimaginable dimensions.

Since there is nowhere to go, it may see Palestinian families forced into Egypt, which would violate a decades-old peace treaty with Cairo and, to quote the Norwegian Refugee Council, would be “a serious breach of international law, amounting to an atrocity crime”. At the same time, an offensive would threaten the lives of the remaining 136 hostages still in the hands of Gaza’s militant factions – some of whom may already be dead.