Isis leader: Is militant group replacing its 'injured' chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi with a former physics teacher?

There are conflicting reports over Baghdadi's condition and who could replace him

A member loyal to the Isis waves an Isis flag in Raqqa

A former physics teacher who rose rapidly through the ranks of Isis has been named by an Iraqi Government adviser as the man now leading the militant terror group following reports that its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was injured in an airstrike.

Dr Hisham al Hashimi, an Iraqi government adviser, told Newsweek that Abu Alaa Afri, “the self-proclaimed caliph’s deputy”, has been made the temporary leader of Isis while Baghdadi recovers.

“After Baghdadi’s wounding, he [Afri] has begun to head up Daesh [arabic term for Isis] with the help of officials responsible for other portfolios,” he said. “He will be the leader of Daesh if Baghdadi dies.”

But reports that Baghdadi was hit in a strike have been disputed and analysts are skeptical over whether a self-declared ‘caliph’ would even allow a deputy to serve underneath him.

Isis fighters wave flags as they take part in a military parade along the streets of Syria's northern Raqqa province

Has Baghdadi really been injured?

The Guardian reported that Baghdadi was seriously wounded in a US-led coalition airstrike in western Iraq and had not yet resumed “day-to-day” control of the group. The newspaper quoted an Iraqi source with connections to Isis as saying he was recovering after being hit in March. However, this report was denied by the Pentagon, who said it had no evidence to suggest Baghdadi had been wounded.

"There's nothing to indicate that there's been a change," Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren told AFP.

How would Isis chose a new leader?

Elijah Magnier, chief international correspondent for Al-Rai Media, said Isis is not a horizontal organisation and instead has a Shura council, or a committee of members, who would appoint the next leader in the event of Baghdadi’s death.

“There is one leader but it doesn't work like with al-Qaeda, when Osama Bin Laden appointed Ayman al-Zawahiri as his second in command,” he explained.

“If we look at the time when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi [the founder of Isis] was the leader, there was no second-in-command. The Shura imposed or elected the next leader."

Would al-Baghdadi have a deputy?

Mr Hashimi said Afri, who is believed to be located in Mosul, has become increasingly prominent during his rise through the ranks of Isis, describing him as “more important, and smarter, and with better relationships” than Baghdadi himself.

But Mr Magnier believes the likelihood of Baghdadi allowing another figure to overshadow him is unlikely.

“Nobody is more important that Baghdadi under Baghdadi ruling,” he said.

“Afri is a well-known figure but a Caliphate in the history of Islam does not have a successor. The same was for the Prophet Mohammad. If Baghdadi is establishing the old Caliphate and ruling 'by the book', he wouldn't appoint a ‘second-in-command’."

Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

If Baghdadi was killed, would Afri be the man chosen to succeed him as leader?

It’s unlikely, according to Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq analyst and Research Fellow and Associate Member at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform.

Mr Jiyad said Afri is a key figure within Isis and could become the operational figurehead in the event Baghdadi dies, but he does not think he will become the ‘caliph’. “This is partly because Baghdadi has claimed to be a descendant of the Prophet and also to have an Islamic sciences background, both of which Abu Alaa does not seem to have," he said.

Afri is also a well-known figure, making him more of a risk. “I think it would make more sense for Daesh to appoint a shadowy figure as caliph, somebody not known at all, maybe even invent a character, so to avoid his being killed or known,” he said. “A faceless caliph may prove more enduring than one who’s DNA and profile has been captured."