Karadzic raises stakes in war of attrition with West

BOSNIA CRISIS; The leader of the Bosnian Serbs has made his fiercest threat over Gorazde, whose defence is a test of Western resolve. Tony Barber reports

The Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic, raised the stakes in his confrontation with Western governments yesterday by threatening to attack any soldiers and aircraft that go to the aid of the Serb-encircled Muslim enclave of Gorazde.

"Whoever sides militarily with the Muslims must be aware that this would entail a war against the Serbs," Mr Karadzic said in a statement from Pale, the Bosnian Serb headquarters outside Sarajevo.

Several hundred British and Ukrainian United Nations troops are based at Gorazde, a town whose defence has suddenly assumed immense importance as a test of Western resolve in the Bosnian conflict. Of the three Muslim enclaves in eastern Bosnia that were declared UN "safe areas" in 1993, Srebrenica fell to the Bosnian Serbs last week and Zepa is following suit this week.

Gorazde is the largest and best-defended of the eastern enclaves, with about 60,000 inhabitants. But while Britain seems primarily concerned about the safe return of its Royal Welch Fusiliers unit from Gorazde, France argues that the West has a responsibility not to let the enclave surrender.

The Clinton administration, though reluctant to meet a French request for United States helicopter support in ferrying extra UN forces to Gorazde, is considering a more aggressive air campaign against Bosnian Serb positions in general. This could mean US air force and navy units attacking ground targets without seeking prior approval from the UN.

Mr Karadzic, anticipating such a development, said: "We shall be forced, in self-defence, to shoot down the helicopters and aircraft which protect the Muslim army. Should the Muslims in Gorazde decide to fight against the Serbs, we shall not allow foreign armed forces to protect our enemies."

The Bosnian Serbs appear to hope that British reluctance to make a stand on Gorazde, and Russian opposition to a more robust military posture on the West's part, will ensure that the enclave eventually goes the way of Srebrenica and Zepa.

The fall of Gorazde, no doubt followed by the methodical expulsion of its Muslim population, would mean that the Bosnian Serbs and Serbia controlled a seamless stretch of territory extending from Sarajevo to Belgrade and would be nearer their goal of forming an enlarged Serbian state.

UN officials held out no hope yesterday for Zepa. The 79 Ukrainian UN troops there had abandoned eight of nine observation posts by morning, and the ninth was surrounded by Bosnian Serb mines. The enclave's small force of Muslim defenders threatened this week to use the Ukrainians as human shields if Nato did not come to Zepa's defence.

The Ukrainian government, concerned about its soldiers' safety, is casting about for ways to extract the men, but President Leonid Kuchma said yesterday this did not mean Ukraine wanted to remove its troops from former Yugoslavia as a whole. "We understand that this would only make matters worse," he said.

About 16,000 Muslims, including many refugees, are crowded into Zepa, and the enclave's surrender would trigger a human disaster similar to that which occurred in Srebrenica last week. The Bosnian Serbs expelled thousands of women and children into Bosnian government-held territory and herded men and boys of fighting age into confinement, supposedly for questioning about "war crimes".

Dutch UN peace-keepers who witnessed Srebrenica's fall have been instructed not to talk about their experiences until all remaining Dutch soldiers are safely out of Bosnia. But a Dutch government minister, Jan Pronk, who returned from Bosnia this week, said the Bosnian Serbs had "assassinated thousands of Muslims" in the enclave.

While world attention was fixed on eastern Bosnia, Croatian Serb forces backed by a renegade Muslim unit launched a co-ordinated assault on the government-held "safe area" of Bihac in north-western Bosnia. The Croatian Serbs attacked from the west, while forces loyal to Fikret Abdic, a Muslim business tycoon and politician who has broken with Sarajevo, attacked from the north.

UN observers reported fierce fighting from the early hours of yesterday morning, with more than 850 explosions recorded. The Croatian Serbs and their Bosnian kinsmen have vowed to wipe out the Bihac pocket, which is wedged between their self-styled states and contains about 180,000 people, almost all Muslim.