There are few hiding places for ex-tyrants

As Slobodan Milosevic contemplates his options if he is forced from power, he must already have come to one conclusion: it's never been harder for ex-tyrants on the run to find a safe and half-way agreeable bolt-hole.

As Slobodan Milosevic contemplates his options if he is forced from power, he must already have come to one conclusion: it's never been harder for ex-tyrants on the run to find a safe and half-way agreeable bolt-hole.

There is no longer - if there ever was one - a European equivalent of Miami, where any deposed rightwing Central American strongman could be sure of a comfortable refuge. Of nearby countries, Greece is historically the most sympathetic, but it is inconceivable that it or its close ally Cyprus - where the Milosevic family has financial interests -- would break ranks with the EU and help out.

On the basis of the Kosovo war, Russia and China, the two United Nations security council members which opposed the campaign, are the two most obvious candidates, and it would be surprising if informal soundings had not already been made.

Its finances restored by soaring oil prices, Russia these days has less need to humour the West to secure loans and credits. Moreover, Borislav Milosevic, the President's brother, is Yugoslavia's current ambassador to Moscow, which, not long ago, permitted a visit to Moscow by a senior Yugoslav military delegation in defiance of international sanctions against Belgrade.

And one final consideration: the flying time from Serbia to Russia is relatively short, a fact that would make it more difficult for Nato to intercept his plane and forcibly deliver the indicted Milosevic to the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal in The Hague. If Russia does have misgivings, a geographically closer possibility would be Belarus, which is hostile to the West.

Further away, and far less familiar, lies China, which would also certainly not hand over Milosevic to The Hague. Otherwise the choices are few indeed. They include rogue states such as Iraq, Libya and North Korea, which have maintained good relations with Yugoslavia on the principle that "my enemy's enemy is my friend."

But other old sanctuaries have vanished. The unsalubrious South American regimes which gave refuge to former Nazis have mostly disappeared.

Milosevic may conclude that, if there's a reasonable chance he won't be torn limb from limb by his compatriots, there's no place like home. Vojislav Kostunica has signalled he will not co-operate with that "monstrous institution", The Hague. It is noteworthy, too, that two other war criminals of past Yugoslav conflicts, the former Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic, have not been arrested, even though Nato has frequently known their whereabouts.