France's position on Russian nerve agent attack explained

France said it was waiting for proof of Russia' culpability

Britain, the US, Germany, and France issued a joint response to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and Yulia Skripal on Thursday afternoon, condemning Russia for the "first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War".

But on Thursday morning and through Wednesday France had initially appeared more hesitant to line up behind Theresa May’s version of events, with Emmanuel Macron’s government taking a more careful approach.

On Wednesday Benjamin Griveaux, a spokesperson for the country’s government, said it was too early to decide on retaliatory measures against Russia, as its involvement was yet to be proven.

“We don't do fantasy politics. Once the elements are proven, then the time will come for decisions to be made,” he told a press conference shortly after Theresa May announced she would be expelling Russian diplomats over the poisoning.

The response apparently raised eyebrows in Westminster and elsewhere, where Theresa May’s analysis and approach has received stronger support. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former Nato chief, told the BBC that “anything short of full solidarity with the UK will be considered a victory by the Kremlin”.

The French government then put out another statement, this time as an “Elysee source”, which said: “France's solidarity with the UK is unquestionable.

“President Macron denounced as early as Tuesday the Salisbury chemical attack as unacceptable and assured Prime Minister May the UK had France's full support. Both leaders will discuss the matter yet again this Thursday.

“Since the beginning of this week, the UK has briefed its allies thoroughly, and France in particular, that it was highly likely that Russia was responsible for the attack.”

Saying you’ve been told something was highly likely, is of course, not the same as saying you believe it is true.

The French statement also contrasted with what the White House was saying at the time, with an unequivocal condemnation of what it said was Russian involvement: “The United States shares the United Kingdom’s assessment that Russia is responsible for the reckless nerve agent attack on a British citizen and his daughter,” a spokesperson said.

Donald Trump's administration is widely regarded as being close to Russia, so why were they ahead of France in condemning the attack? Key to understanding the different French response is the strategy taken by Emmanuel Macron to Russia and Vladimir Putin and the background to the two leaders’ relationship.

Mr Macron has always been keen not to isolate Russia on the international stage. He is making his first presidential trip to Russia in May, and has engaged directly with Mr Putin over Syria in a way that some other Western leaders have not, asking the president to help open humanitarian corridors and mooting the return of peace talks.

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May addresses the House of Commons on her government's reaction to the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury (Parliament TV handout via REUTERS)

Last month the two leaders had a comprehensive discussion over the telephone in which they pledged to cooperate more closely, including on Syria. They have also tried to put the Ukraine conflict behind them. Mr Putin visited France in May of last year.

Diplomatically, preventing a leader from becoming isolated is a fairly standard approach to preventing the escalation of a conflict. But there are also increasingly important economic ties between the two countries, too.

Russian state media outlet RT reported earlier this month that trade between the two countries is booming, having risen by around a fifth in 2017 despite sanctions. France buys minerals from Russia, while Russia buys chemicals, machinery, and food from France.

Russian ambassadors are also keen to note that French investment in the Russian economy is growing, having reached more than $14 billion, while Russia's direct investment in France is $3.2 billion, according to figures put out on RT.

More straightforwardly, French scepticism of the claims of British intelligence is nothing new, as anyone who remembers the run-up to the Iraq war will know. But for France, the stakes of alienating Russia are simply higher.

Britain’s economic relationship with the country mostly involves Russian big money coming to London, a relationship that doesn’t seem likely to be endangered by anything Theresa May says about Vladimir Putin. This is arguably not the case for France, explaining its initial caution – even if after international pressure, it lined up behind its allies.

This article has been updated to reflect the joint statement on Thursday