Disaster saves Schröder's hopes in German election

As emergency workers strive desperately to hold back the waters, the Chancellor seizes the chance to outshine his Bavarian rival

The floods ravaging much of the former East Germany have transformed its electoral arithmetic in as many ways as they have devastated the land.

A survey yesterday indicated that the lead of the opposition Christian Democrats over Gerhard Schröder's Social Democratic party (SDP) has narrowed ahead of the 22 September election.

The drop of one percentage point is not startling, but the poll, for ZDF television, was taken as floods raged through the east, distracting voters from the economy and a batch of other bad news issues for the Chancellor. It followed an opinion poll on Monday showing the SPD overtaking the Christian Democrats.

Mr Schröder is not a religious man, but if he wins re-election as Chancellor he will have only the Almighty to thank.

At the start of this week, the SDP was between five and nine points down in the polls, with the Bavarian centre-right challenger, Edmund Stoiber, remaining stubbornly in the lead.

Voters have been feeling frustrated, with the economy struggling and unemployment almost back to 4 million, the figure that Mr Schröder pledged to cut when he took office. By contrast, Mr Stoiber's record in Bavaria, where unemployment is low and outside investment high, was his campaign pitch.

But one week later, the comparison is almost irrelevant. Yesterday Mr Schröder stood alongside Peter Hartz, head of personnel at Volkswagen, to present a programme to reform Germany's labour laws.

The Hartz Commission was set up outside the government apparatus to distance its findings from the political fray. That was unsuccessful. Mr Stoiber and his centre-right coalition said they would not support it.

But the presentation of the report – an election gambit to show that Mr Schröder was tackling unemployment – passed almost unnoticed. The waves were being made elsewhere. With Dresden under water, record levels threatening the whole Elbe river system and thousands of homes, people were looking to central government for solutions.

Mr Stoiber's "misfortune'' was that the floods passed through Bavaria with comparatively little lasting damage. And the money he had at his disposal was far less than central government can provide.

Day by day, Mr Schröder's stature has grown in proportion to the scale of the disaster. Slower than Mr Stoiber to appear in the flood zone, he made up for lost time – ripping up his campaign schedule and replacing it with tours in the areas worst affected. Yesterday, he authorised distribution of the first disaster aid. It was, as he promised, "fast, unbureaucratic and in cash''.

The standing of central government benefits from natural disasters, so long as they are seen as genuinely natural and the government does not botch the rescue. Thus far, Mr Schröder has been sure-footed.

He has mobilised the relevant ministers, who have appeared well in command. He has come across as frank, sympathetic and humane, and – not a small point – he looks far more convincing than Mr Stoiber in a pair of wellies and an anorak.

This is immense bad luck for Mr Stoiber, whose chief electoral merit was his air of managerial competence and his familiarity with boardrooms. Today, German politics is all about filling sandbags while up to your knees in water, consoling people and saving the cultural treasures of Dresden. That sort of thing is not Mr Stoiber's forté.